Advanced Outlook: Clemson-NC State projections

Clemson's ability to give Cade Klubnik a clean pocket could be critical.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Wed Oct 25 16:14:14 GMT-04:00 2023

Clemson again plays in an ACC matchup featuring identical overall records and questions abounding on both sides.

The Tigers (4-3, 2-3 ACC) look to restore some order in Raleigh -- after defeat the last time there -- in what’s been a lopsided traditional rivalry with NC State (4-3, 1-2) lately, with the trajectory of each teams’ season landing the game on a more obscure broadcast channel Saturday afternoon (2 p.m./The CW).

Taking a closer look at how the teams compare:

Efficiency rankings

Team overall: Offense | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks ($) (19): 32 | 9 | 74

NCSU SP+ ranks (54): 80 | 30 | 12

CU FEI ranks (23): 32 | 7 | 124

NCSU FEI ranks (58): 102 | 26 | 18

CU FPI ranks (18): 56 | 7 | 129

NCSU FPI ranks (60): 96 | 32 | 51

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While some recent matchups have had Clemson as peers with ACC foes, the metrics tell the story of why a home team is a double-digit underdog to a scuffling Tigers squad.

The Wolfpack does not rate above 80th offensively – and fall as low as 102nd in overall offensive stats we track, but the NC State defense can challenge a team – particularly one in Clemson that has not taken off versus any conference foes.

NC State is a Top 40 group in creating havoc defensively (39th; pass breakups, interceptions, forced fumbles and tackles for loss), while its offense is one of the worst in havoc being wreaked on them (92nd). Clemson’s splits are also disparate, with the Tiger defense ranking seventh and the offense 72nd.

Despite better advanced numbers, the Wolfpack are in the middle of the pack in yards per play allowed (5.47; 63rd) and scoring given up (23.6; 57th).

When teams have reached the red zone on them, NC State has been one of the worst in college football defensively (125th overall; 91st in TD% allowed), but they rank 14th in red zone tries given up total (17). Clemson’s defense is right behind that with 18 allowed, ranking 39th in red zone defense and 28th in red zone TD% allowed. Half of the Wolfpack FBS schedule ranks 90th or worse in yards per play, with only Notre Dame (15th) and Louisville (17th) in the Top 25.

Clemson’s red zone woes, and turnover woes coinciding with them, have the Tigers with the third-worst Power 5 red zone group (129th overall) and 103rd in scoring TDs there. Clemson has a winning offense overall by the numbers (No. 32 in SP+/FEI), however, and could break out by getting on the right side of red zone execution.

Three NC State players to watch

1. WR Kevin Concepcion

The 5-11 freshman has been the Wolfpack offense in three of the last four games with 35 targets and 21 catches for 287 yards and four touchdowns for NC State, going 2-1 versus Virginia, Marshall and Duke. The majority of his targets have been within the markers (0-9 yards) or behind the line of scrimmage (63.9%), with 228 of his 410 yards that way (183 yards after catch). He does have two touchdowns in his three catches on deep shots, however (20+ yards; 12 targets total there).

2. LB Payton Wilson

Wilson is in Year 5 on the field for the Wolfpack D and having his best season yet, grading at 80.4 on PFF with strong marks across the board, including an 80 grade in coverage and 82.1 on tackling. He also ranks second on the team in pressures (14) and sacks (4).

3. QB MJ Morris

Morris was installed as NC State’s starter again after the experiment with grad transfer and ACC vet Brennan Armstrong struggled. He improved in PFF’s grading system week-to-week from Marshall (4 TDs/3 INTs) to the 24-3 loss to Duke (65.2 grade). Against Duke, Morris completed 60% of his throws for 191 yards (just 4.8 yards per attempt) with an interception, and he added 69 yards rushing gained.

(Stats per PFF)

Misc. Clemson stat of the week

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has largely intimated that defenses are dictating how many deep shots Clemson can take, and there have only been a few teams that have allowed many of those, with how they play their defensive backs. Tigers starting QB Cade Klubnik is coming off a season-high nine attempts of 20+ yards against Miami, and he threw both of his touchdowns on those deep attempts.

Klubnik is grading his best of any depth tracked by PFF on deep throws (75.3) with five touchdowns to one interception. He only has two throws determined as turnover-worthy on those attempts, while he has three each at the medium (10-19 yards) and short lengths (0-9; two interceptions).

The amount of time he has to pass certainly plays a factor in success as well, where he's amassed 11 touchdowns to no interceptions at 7.7 yards per attempt and a 74.7 grade with the pocket kept clean. Under pressure, where 33.6% of his dropbacks have been, he’s graded at 39.3 with 4.5 yards per attempt with two touchdowns in three interceptions. On average, he has 2.67 seconds to throw with a sack every 20 dropbacks. For comparison, PFF’s top-graded QB this season in Colorado’s Shadeur Sanders holds an average of 2.84 seconds to throw, and next is Michigan’s JJ McCarthy with 2.87. Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. is third overall with 2.66, however.

Odds

Clemson -10; 43.5 over/under.

Metrics predictions

SP+ projection: Clemson 28-19 (70% Clemson projection)

FEI: Clemson 28-10 (71% Clemson projection)

ESPN FPI: 75.6% Clemson projection

CLEMSON @ NC STATE pic.twitter.com/crwAmIbVlU
— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 24, 2023

Analysis: The metrics above all take Clemson to cover the current number, and take out some simply awful turnover issues for the Tigers, it’s hard not to see Swinney’s bunch do just that in this particular matchup.

But given seven games worth of trends, you can’t just take out the turnover issues. And after a thorough defeat at the hands of Duke last time out, NC State should use the open week to throw the kitchen sink at a Clemson team that could very easily fall back into some bad patterns with a tough start in a tough environment.

Ultimately, Clemson’s defense should be better at stopping an anemic Wolfpack offense than NC State will be at limiting Clemson’s. If the Tigers play well enough on special teams and keep it to two or fewer turnovers, I think it’s a Clemson win at or over the Vegas number. That’ll be the big question mark though. Pick: Clemson -10 (2-5 on ATS picks, 4-3 on over/under; Game score pick in TigerNet’s weekly game prediction story).