Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Tennessee Orange Bowl projections

Cade Klubnik is set to make his first start and how he plays likely determines if Clemson finishes the season on a good note.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Tue Dec 20 09:06:41 GMT-04:00 2022

Clemson and Tennessee have each had their moments en route to top-7 College Football Playoff rankings ahead of an Orange Bowl meeting on Dec. 30.

Those moments – good, bad and just OK – were shaped by a number of players who will not step on the Hard Rock Stadium field in Miami Gardens, Florida (8 p.m./ESPN), however.

And that presents some problems for metrics and predicting this game.

First, here’s the big-picture look at the teams:

Efficiency ranks: Offense: | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks ($) (11): 33 | 23 | 19

UT SP+ ranks (5): 1 | 38 | 52

CU FPI ranks (9): 31 | 12 | 59

UT FPI ranks (5): 2 | 55 | 13

CU FEI ranks (19): 44 | 12 | | 43

UT FEI ranks (4): 1 | 37 | 34

–

For Tennessee, the key absences come in a late-season injury to quarterback and SEC offensive player of the year Hendon Hooker (torn ACL) and bowl opt-outs from wide receivers Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman. In that trio (plus a couple more), the Vols lose 78.6% of their passing yards, 45.4% of their receiving yards and 17.4% of their rushing yards.

Tennessee will look to the ground for success primarily, where they ranked 17th in PFF grade with a solid 1-2 punch (91 grade).

For Clemson, the hope is building on the improvement shown in the 39-10 win over a depleted and struggling UNC defense, where freshman QB Cade Klubnik took over for 13-game starter DJ Uiagalelei and connected on 20-of-24 passes for 279 yards and a TD and rushed for 30 more yards and a score.

The Tigers suffered their key losses as well this month, with projected early-round NFL draft picks in defensive end Myles Murphy (opt-out) and linebacker Trenton Simpson (injury) being two defensive starters out -- to go with Uiagalelei being among nine transfer portal entries this season.

Three Tennessee players to watch

1. QB Joe Milton III - The fifth-year player and former 4-star prospect made his lone start in Hooker’s absence within a 56-0 win over Vanderbilt to close the regular season. He connected on 11-of-21 throws for 147 yards and a TD, with 61 of those coming on one pass and 86 yards total over three connections to Hyatt. Overall this season, Milton has graded at 90.3 on throws of 20+ yards (10/22 for 481 yards/5 TDs), while seeing sub 70-grades on medium (69.4), short (47.1) and behind the line of scrimmage tosses (66.9) with two TDs combined over 31 passes. Milton gets a chance to show what he can do as the QB1 again but faces a stiff challenge down two of Tennessee’s top receivers this season.

Is Joe Milton HIM? pic.twitter.com/uyCXDBxECI
— Big T (@ConnerHKnapp) September 18, 2022

JOE MILTON HAS A CANNON @Qbjayy7 | @Vol_Football pic.twitter.com/3APW9uTFfP
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) November 27, 2022

2. RBs Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright - Behind Hooker and Milton, Tennessee’s other top-graded players come in the backfield at running back with this duo. When needed in Nashville against Vandy, the two combined for 239 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Small also rushed for 127 yards and two scores in a win at LSU earlier this season.

It feels like Jabari Small flew under the radar this season. Second on the team with 802 total yards and also second on the team with 14 total touchdowns. pic.twitter.com/4ALz9rCneY
— zach ragan (@zachTNT) December 10, 2022

One of my favorite sequences from the game. The physicality of this team gets overlooked. Incredible runs by Jaylen Wright and Hendon Hooker here. pic.twitter.com/0nQTCMIzV4
— zach ragan (@zachTNT) October 30, 2022

3. CB Brandon Turnage - Turnage played more down the stretch, outside of having to sit the Vanderbilt game due to injury, and saw his four highest snap counts with four pass breakups and an interception in his final four games for the top grade for the Vols defensively (76.8).

Odds

Clemson -6; 63.5 over/under.

Metrics predictions

SP+ projection: 34-27 Tennessee (64% Vols projection)

ESPN FPI: 57.4% Tennessee projection

TeamRankings*: 35-28 Clemson

FEI: 41-26 Tennessee (83.9% Vols projection)

?ORANGE BOWL: TENNESSEE v CLEMSON pic.twitter.com/p7tPq1SrNZ
— parker, u n v e r i f i e d (@statsowar) December 7, 2022

*In the above link as well.

Analysis: This game is tough for the metrics and you can see ones accounting for all the changes and ones that haven't adjusted as much. FEI sees the body of work over the season and has that Vols team as being 15 points better than the ‘22 Tigers. The SP+ formula is closer but still flips the point spread and picks Tennessee by seven. The FPI sees a single-digit Vols win as well, while TeamRankings counters with Clemson covering the number.

Dabo Swinney’s teams have done well with extra preparation time in December going back even before the Playoff runs (2015-20). Clemson has covered the spread in three of its last four bowl games and 8-of-10 since 2012 (11-of-14 in all bowl/Playoff games in that span). There should be plenty of excitement about being in this game, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tennessee move the ball some and some mistakes from a freshman QB on the Tigers’ side. The big losses on the Volunteers’ side offensively, however, bring more confidence to Clemson in finding a way to win by around a TD. Pick: Clemson -6. (6-7 on ATS picks; 11-2 on O/U this year – game score picks in TigerNet’s predictions story).