Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Wake Forest projections

Cade Klubnik has been able to avoid turnovers in the passing game since some issues in the first two weeks.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Wed Oct 04 12:31:03 GMT-04:00 2023

Clemson is back to some comfortable environs as a near three-touchdown home favorite this week.

Will the Tigers build on the 31-14 win at Syracuse last week and outperform expectations like that against Wake Forest (3:30 p.m./ACCN)?

Taking a closer look at how the teams compare:

Efficiency rankings

Team (overall): Offense | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks ($) (14): 26 | 11 | 70

WF SP+ ranks (50): 56 | 58 | 76

CU FEI ranks (17): 30 | 3 | 130

WF FEI ranks (65): 51 | 54 | 86

CU FPI ranks (17): 51 | 4 | 130

WF FPI ranks (70): 114 | 34 | 58

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Clemson’s defense continues to move up the metrics, with Top 5 marks in two of the three spots we track. The offense is also in the Top 30 for two of the three, and it moved up 22 spots for the ESPN FPI efficiency metric week-to-week.

Wake Forest isn’t exceptional at anything, but the Deacs are in the top half of FBS football for SP+ and FEI on offense and defense. It’s a step back from the metrics for opponents in the last weeks with Florida State and Syracuse, but the numbers say they aren’t a bad team either.

Special teams continue to be not special at all for Clemson, and the Tigers are joined there, to an extent, by Wake Forest as well.

Three Wake Forest players to watch

1. WR Jahmal Banks

Banks (6-4 205) was one of several Deacs to hurt the Tigers’ back-seven last year, totaling six catches in eight targets for 141 yards and two touchdowns. He is Wake’s top-graded skill player this season (76.1 PFF) with touchdown receptions in three of the four games.

Jahmal Banks’ touchdown grab was SVP’s “Best Thing I Saw Today.” pic.twitter.com/xEnXlAILch
— Josh Graham (@JoshGrahamShow) September 1, 2023

2. ED Jasheen Davis

Davis paces the Deacs defense grades-wise (84) with 19 total pressures, including 13 hurries and five sacks through four games.

Talk about a plot twist! 🔁@WakeFB | @JasheenDavis_30 | @cpisecurity pic.twitter.com/lsWGviszhU
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) September 16, 2023

3. Wake’s O-line

The Top 4 grades for Wake Forest come on the offensive with guard Michael Jurgens (83.7), tackles DeVonte Gordon (79.7) and Spencer Clapp (77.6) and center Luke Pettibon (76.4). Wake QB Mitch Griffis will need all the help he can get to boost his numbers from his start, with a 58.5 grade overall, with the worst effort coming last time out in a second matchup with a Power 5 opponent (Georgia Tech, 43.5 grade, 16/30 for 162 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs). Griffis did perform well enough to top Vandy at home, with a 72.1 grade, 65.4 cmp% for 196 yards and two touchdowns to no interceptions. When kept clean, Griffis has graded out at 74 with a 63 cmp% for 8.1 yards per attempt with five touchdowns to two interceptions, while under pressure, he’s graded a 29 with a 48.1 cmp% and 6.9 yards per attempt with four touchdowns to four interceptions. Wake Forest has to protect the QB to see any kind of success.

(Grades and stats per PFF primarily)

Misc. Clemson stat of the week

Since the pick-six in the Charleston Southern game, Cade Klubnik hasn’t thrown an interception in his last 122 attempts.

2022 starter DJ Uiagalelei did well to avoid interceptions early last season as well, with one pick in the first five games and only two in the first seven contests. Per PFF, 33.8% of Klubnik’s dropbacks have been pressured this season, where both of the 2023 interceptions have come, while Uiagalelei faced pressure on 25.7% of his 2022 dropbacks.

In an odd caveat, six of Uiagalelei’s seven interceptions came with the pocket “clean” last year. Klubnik hasn’t thrown a pick with a clean pocket in his college career so far (211 dropbacks), compared to 15 total for Uiagelelei through four seasons in the same situation (778 dropbacks).

Odds

Clemson -20.5; 51.5 over/under.

Metrics predictions

SP+ projection: Clemson 34-18 (82% Clemson projection)

FEI: Clemson 29-13 (87.4% Clemson projection)

WAKE FOREST @ CLEMSON pic.twitter.com/MJu1JdE8nd
— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 3, 2023

ESPN FPI: 89.4% Clemson projection

Analysis: Clemson hasn’t been in the 20s as a favorite versus a Power 5 opponent since the trip to Boston College last year, a 31-3 win. Despite some ups and downs last season, Clemson did cover both spreads that were three touchdowns and up (BC and Georgia Tech) and outperformed one that was close with Miami (-19; 40-10 victory).

Coming off a bye in the last two seasons, Wake Forest has averaged 57 points, but the two opponents were not great (43-15 over BC; 70-56 over Army), and that’s with a record-setting QB in Sam Hartman that’s now gone (who Clemson sees again with Notre Dame to start November).

None of the metric projections above like Clemson quite enough to win by three TDs, but the Tigers have shown an ability to be effective with the run and pass and look to be facing a worse opponent than last week in Syracuse. The only drama should come with how much the number is in Clemson’s favor Saturday. Pick: Clemson -20.5. (2-3 on ATS picks, 3-2 on over/under; Game score pick in TigerNet’s weekly game prediction story).