Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Kentucky Gator Bowl projections

Cade Klubnik looks to get the Clemson offense in gear to pull away from the Kentucky Wildcats.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Sun Dec 24 14:53:02 GMT-04:00 2023

The bowls are increasingly becoming a season of their own in an era of more depleted rosters due to NFL draft opt-outs and transfer portal exits affecting the depth chart.

After three draft departures (Ruke Orhorhoro, Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Nate Wiggins) and some more transfers from the two-deep outlook, Clemson’s Gator Bowl depth chart has 32 underclassmen for 50 spots combined on the offensive and defensive depth charts – 15 being listed as potential starters.

With both sides taking their roster hits going in, a closer look at how Clemson and Kentucky compared this season:

Efficiency rankings

Team overall: Offense | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks ($) (23): 51 | 12 | 76

UK SP+ ranks (32): 44 | 34 | 38

CU FEI ranks (22): 63 | 3 | 124

UK FEI ranks (37): 42 | 46 | 12

CU FPI ranks (19): 74 | 2 | 122

UK FPI ranks (35): 40 | 41 | 64

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While Clemson is nearly 50 spots ahead of Kentucky in total offense, the ACC’s Tigers are just one ahead and all of 0.6 points per game different in scoring offense (Clemson 56th/29.2 PPG v. Kentucky 57th/28.6 PPG). With Kentucky averaging more yards per play (6.06-5.3), that dichotomy shows in the efficiency metrics, where the Wildcats out-pace Clemson on each overall offensive ranking we’ve tracked this season. In terms of pace of play, Kentucky is dead-last in plays per game versus FBS opponents (56.4), while Clemson is sixth (77.3).

Neither team has lit it up in red zone efficiency overall, with Kentucky at 90th and Clemson 126th, but the Mark Stoops’ Wildcats are No. 27 in red zone TD percentage (67.5) to Clemson’s No. 95 ranking (55.3).

The difference there might be the difference in the game, however, with how the teams defend up against their respective goallines -- Kentucky 119th in red zone defense/72nd in red zone TD rate allowed (90.7 scoring allowed/60.5 TD rate allowed) and Clemson 49th/43rd (81.5/55.6).

Clemson’s defense, which will certainly miss three starters, is by far the most elite unit on the field, with multiple Top 3 metrics overall and several young standouts on hand for the late December kickoff (noon on December 29/ESPN).

Three Kentucky players to watch

1. RB Ray Davis

Davis (5-10 216) ranked 10th best nationally in PFF’s grades as a runner this season (91.6; min. 100 rush attempts) with 5.7 yards an attempt in totaling 1,063 yards and 13 touchdowns. He had one fumble in 185 rushes this season.

Davis was a workhorse in the win over Florida at home earlier year, with 26 carries for 280 yards and four total touchdowns in the 33-14 victory (91.4 PFF grade overall).

Kentucky RB Ray Davis hit a NASTY spin move on that TD run🤧 @KSRonX pic.twitter.com/RhjlGs8BiL
— On3 (@On3sports) November 19, 2023

2. CB Maxwell Hairston

Hairston (6-1 181) led the SEC and ranks Top 5 in the country with five interceptions, with two of them returned for touchdowns versus Vanderbilt this season. He led the Kentucky defense in PFF grade (82.8) with an 85.2 mark in coverage. Hairston allowed only two touchdowns in 64 targets his way with four pass breakups.

Not one, but TWO pick-6️⃣s for Maxwell Hairston 😤

(📍 @NavyFederal) pic.twitter.com/UX3VKwIsf0
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) September 23, 2023

3. QB Devin Leary

Leary improved from the last time Clemson saw him at NC State but didn’t reach the figures of his lofty junior campaign.

He graded at 73.4 for the year, up from 68.4 last year, but his first year in the Kentucky offense didn’t touch a career 2021 campaign, where he graded at 84.6 with 35 touchdowns to five interceptions, 3,435 passing yards and a 65.6 completion rate (8 yards per attempt). This season, Leary completed 56% of his throws for 2,444 yards and 23 touchdowns to 10 interceptions (7.1 yards per attempt). Leary helped end Clemson’s long winning streak against the Wolfpack in 2021 with four touchdown passes to no picks and a 72.7 completion rate for 238 yards.

Leary topped 200 passing yards only twice in the Wildcats’ final eight games, but one was in the upset win over No. 10 Louisville to close the regular season, with 206 passing yards and three touchdowns to one interception in the 38-31 road win. Against a common opponent in South Carolina, he was limited to 166 passing yards and one touchdown and interception each in a 17-14 road loss.

Devin Leary awareness

pic.twitter.com/1nrSvdgLpB
— Mike Farrell (@mfarrellsports) September 17, 2023

Misc. Clemson stat of the week

Last year’s 31-14 defeat to Tennessee was the program’s first loss in a non-Playoff postseason game since the 2012 Orange Bowl versus West Virginia (70-33; 2011 season). As a non-CFP bowl favorite, Dabo Swinney’s teams are 2-4 straight up, but they are 3-0 as an underdog.

Odds

Clemson -5.5; 46.5 over/under.

Metrics predictions

SP+ projection: Clemson 25-24 (54% Clemson win projection)

FEI: Clemson 16-12 (61.8% Clemson win projection)

GATOR BOWL: CLEMSON v KENTUCKY pic.twitter.com/R2wByf4Dw1
— parker fleming (@statsowar) December 14, 2023

ESPN FPI: 61.1% Clemson projection

Analysis: Clemson again has a talent advantage, but that wasn’t all that much of a factor in the same advantage it had in all four losses this year. I’ll pick the Tigers to win, but I don’t know that they’ve shown to be nearly a touchdown better than a solid yet unspectacular Kentucky team. Pick: Kentucky +5.5 (4-8 on ATS picks, 7-5 on over/under; Game score pick in TigerNet’s weekly game prediction story).