Stats & Storylines: Georgia Week has arrived

DJ Uiagalelei will have his hands full with the Georgia defense.

by Ryan Kantor - Contributor - Sun Aug 29 08:00:05 GMT-04:00 2021

College football is officially back! After an appetizer in “Week 0” with Illinois toppling Nebraska, this Saturday will bring the biggest game of the entire college football regular season. The No. 3 Clemson Tigers and No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs face off in a season opener that will shape the narrative around both teams. Will the Tigers be “skating through a weak ACC after losing to an SEC power,” or will they be a “dynasty expected to play for yet another national championship”? Will the Bulldogs continue to “lose when it counts the most” or will this be “their year to beat Alabama and claim their long overdue National Title”?

With so much on the line, I couldn’t wait until next week to publish the first Stats & Storylines article of the season. Let’s dive into some of the looming questions and possible answers that will likely decide who comes away with a win on September 4th.

JT Daniels 2020 Stats: 4 games, 67% Completion Percentage, 10.3 yards per attempt, 10-2 TD-INT

Following a blowout loss to Florida, Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs made a change at quarterback, turning to USC transfer JT Daniels. Daniels started three regular-season games against the weak underbelly of the SEC: Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Missouri. He took advantage, posting gaudy stats including a 401 yard 4-TD game against Mississippi State. Georgia beat Cincinnati in the Peach Bowl on a game-winning field goal to send the Bulldogs into an off-season filled with optimism. Have they finally found their QB?

JT Daniels is top-5 in Heisman odds and has one of the most talented rosters in the country around him. In a small sample with Georgia, he took his game to another level and appeared 100% healthy after tearing his ACL while playing for Southern Cal.

The Duke’s Mayo Classic against Clemson will be the first time he has faced a truly top-notch defense with elite talent since his freshman year at USC in 2018. If JT Daniels proves to be a dynamic playmaker against the Tigers defense and leads the Bulldogs to victory, perhaps he should be the Heisman-favorite and the Dawgs No. 1 in the nation. Playing Clemson will be very different than playing South Carolina and Cincinnati though. It is hard to know how much stock to put into last year’s four-game sample, but it’ll be much clearer after Saturday.

2020 Yards per Carry: Lyn-J Dixon 4.5 YPC on 42 rushes, Kobe Pace 4.2 YPC on 18 rushes

The offseason has been filled with optimistic talk about Clemson’s offensive line. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has discussed the improved depth and having more offensive linemen they “can win with.” Now, all that optimism will be put to the test against Georgia, who led college football in yards per carry defense (2.4).

Expectations should be tempered against such a great rushing defense, but some offensive balance is still critical. If Dixon and Pace can move the chains with a somewhat efficient running game, it likely means the Tigers’ troubles on the O-line are a thing of the past and Georgia is in trouble. Conversely, if they are stuffing Clemson at the line, again and again, the path to victory narrows and is heaped onto the shoulders of DJ Uiagalelei.

Georgia defense in the 2021 NFL Draft: CB Eric Stokes (1st rnd), CB Tyson Campbell (2nd rnd), LB Azeez Ojulari (2nd rnd), LB Monty Rice (3rd rnd), S Richard LeCounte (5th rnd), and Nickel Mark Webb (7th rnd)

Georgia had six players from last year’s defense selected in the 2021 NFL draft – an impressive feat. Replacing them without missing a step in the first week of the season would be even more impressive. The Bulldogs’ recruiting, much like Alabama’s, affords them the possibility of doing it. Still, Smart felt they needed to dip into the transfer portal to add defensive backs Derion Kendrick and Tykee Smith (from West Virginia), the latter of which had foot surgery and is doubtful for the Clemson game. Even if they can replace all the departures effectively, it could take a few weeks to jell.

Conversely, Clemson returns their entire starting defense from last season except linebacker Mike Jones (who transferred to LSU after losing playing time to Trenton Simpson) and cornerback Derion Kendrick (who was dismissed from the team and subsequently went to Georgia). They have two “super seniors” in linebacker James Skalski and safety Nolan Tuner. The defensive line is expected to improve as defensive ends Justin Foster and Xavier Thomas are back and healthy after struggling through COVID-19 and other ailments last season.

While Georgia’s calling card is their consistently strong defense, it’s no given they’ll have the advantage there with the massive amount of talent they’re replacing.

Clemson Pass Defense: 7.5 yards per attempt allowed (71st)

The Tigers may have more experience on defense than the Dawgs, but they have improving to do after struggling to stop the pass in 2020. In their two losses, they allowed 385 and 310 passing yards to Ohio State and Notre Dame, respectively. They also allowed 293 to Wake Forest and 270 to Virginia.

With safety Lannden Zanders no longer playing through a significant shoulder injury, he has added muscle and a big step in his development is expected. Freshman Andrew Mukuba joins the team from Texas and could supplement depth in the secondary. A more vicious pass rush could help too. While there’s plenty of reason for optimism, improvement is no given and will be one of the biggest X-factors in this game.

Final thoughts

We’ll learn a lot about these teams on Saturday. Has Clemson’s offensive line taken that leap we’re all expecting? Will the pass defense get better?

Can Georgia replace six NFL draft picks and still have an elite defense? Biggest of all, who is the real JT Daniels? If he is just a guy who was hitting wide open receivers against weak defenses down the stretch, pick the Tigers to win. If he is a dynamic playmaker and one of the best QBs in the country, the Bulldogs very well may be headed for a national championship.