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110%er [5079]
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95.6% win probability with 10:19 left up 12
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Feb 18, 2024, 11:25 PM
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96.8% win probability with 1:43 left up 9 against GT
It’s odd that those scenarios only have a difference of 1.2% win probability. Anyway, taking Ls like this are as sad as it gets.
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Legend [17294]
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So you saying we had a chance at winning those games?***
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Feb 19, 2024, 12:24 AM
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Oculus Spirit [77014]
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Welcome to why you shouldn't bet on college basketball.***
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Feb 19, 2024, 12:42 AM
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All-In [44054]
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Thats not a big lead with 10 minutes left.
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Feb 19, 2024, 12:57 AM
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I don’t think you understand basketball or how the ESPN win probability works.
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110%er [5079]
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I dont think you understand my post, but thanks for checking in***
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Feb 19, 2024, 3:33 AM
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Legend [17781]
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I dont understand your post as well.
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Feb 19, 2024, 11:15 AM
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Taking a step back, I think you are pretty much stating that the loss to GT is a bad one - even more so when you look at the probability win% metric. I agree 100%. A ###### ###### loss.
But not sure what inference you are making with regards to the probability change over time? Maybe first past is a criticism and second part is just an observation.
Personally I’m surprised that the probability is that high with +10 min left or whatever. I guess the math works out though.
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Hall of Famer [21764]
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Orange Blooded [4095]
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Re: Thats not a big lead with 10 minutes left.
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Feb 19, 2024, 10:31 AM
[ in reply to Thats not a big lead with 10 minutes left. ] |
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Evidently, you are wrong as usual.
A team up 12 with 10 minutes left has a 95% chance of winning the game.
How can you not understand what win probability means?
#######!
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Legend [16921]
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Re: Thats not a big lead with 10 minutes left.
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Feb 19, 2024, 10:44 AM
[ in reply to Thats not a big lead with 10 minutes left. ] |
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I think you are the one struggling to understand that an algorithm designed to predict outcome based on a host of variables including specific team metrics and known probabilities within the sport more broadly put Clemson at a less than 5% chance of blowing the game at the game. Redundancy bias - you’ve watch Brownell blow a disproportionate number of games as favorite (he’s 13th in the ACC in win percentage in the ACC as a favorite since 2010) - is the only reason you believe this is typical in college basketball.
Message was edited by: viztiz®
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Starter [361]
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Re: 95.6% win probability with 10:19 left up 12
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Feb 19, 2024, 5:41 AM
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Brown L
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110%er [6170]
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Re: 95.6% win probability with 10:19 left up 12
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Feb 19, 2024, 7:22 AM
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Of all the meaningless things ESPN has come up with in the last decade that win probability is easily the most meaningless. Many football games showed a 99+% chance with less than a minute to play right up until the other team scored and won. Basketball is even more random and therefore win probability is more meaningless.
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All-In [36410]
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With Brownsquirts You NEVER Have Anything With 90%+ Probability Expect
Feb 19, 2024, 7:42 AM
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That you will Shart the game
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All-In [30460]
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No Brownlead is safe
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Feb 19, 2024, 8:16 AM
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🐅
Message was edited by: STERLING®
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Oculus Spirit [83130]
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What was the win probability when we were down 19-2 to Davidson or
Feb 19, 2024, 9:05 AM
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down by 7 in the 2nd half to Bama or down by 11 to SC in 2nd half?
The 3 point shot frequency has made almost no lead comfortable in today's game.
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110%er [8538]
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Re: 95.6% win probability with 10:19 left up 12
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Feb 19, 2024, 10:11 AM
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I guess you have never watched many basketball games. Up 10, opponent hits a 3, teams turns the ball over and the opponent hits another 3 which is a 6 point swing in 20 seconds or less. Happens just about every game at some point. What is your nerd probability now?
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Orange Blooded [4095]
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Re: 95.6% win probability with 10:19 left up 12
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Feb 19, 2024, 10:34 AM
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And yet, 95% of the time, the team up by 12 with 10 minutes left wins the game.
How stupid are you?
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All-In [32656]
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Very.***
Feb 19, 2024, 11:03 AM
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Legend [16921]
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Re: 95.6% win probability with 10:19 left up 12
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Feb 19, 2024, 10:45 AM
[ in reply to Re: 95.6% win probability with 10:19 left up 12 ] |
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You have to watch A LOT of basketball to have convinced yourself that something that happens 5% of the time is normal.
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CU Guru [1697]
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Re: 95.6% win probability with 10:19 left up 12
Feb 19, 2024, 10:47 AM
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I just listened to John and Brad on The Roar discussing the end of the game when PJ Hall got the ball and 4 NC State players basically tackle him. They said that should have been a foul called but it was called a tie-up and State gets the ball to win the game.i have to agree that that should have been a foul against State. I think it was Brad that said for some reason the refs treat PJ Hall differently. They said is that was Fliposwki foe Duke a foul would have been called against the other team. I tend to agree with that also.
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