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Trainer [25]
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Closed out well ... but here's why its stressful
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Feb 10, 2024, 3:15 PM
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The calls do seem to more often go against the Tigers, but there is more consistent pattern that explains why the games seem to always come down to the wire (where ref calls can direcly influence the outcome)?
It's no great revelation to anyone here that Clemson has a tendency to go 2+ minute stretches multiple times a game without scoring a point. Bad calls / no calls may account for a portion of this, maybe 1/3 of the time. That still leaves ~70% of those droughts directly in the control of the players to make buckets. (Yes, they may score multiple times a minute for those other minutes, so that it averages out, but its the drought times that you have opportunities for even more points!)
Just ONE point per minute instead of 0 over the cummulative drought time and Clemson beats UNC 2x, and easily beats Duke, Virginia, and Ga Tech. We would be 10-2 in ACC and leading the conference.
(The drought pattern was there throughout the final 16 minutes of the Miami game, but Miami outscored us 48-29 over that time ... so poor perimiter defense and hot shooting by Miami - especially on 3 point shots, was the main reason for that loss. The drought pattern was there as well in the final 9 minutes of the VT game ... a combined 5 minutes of no scoring over the last 9 minutes of the game. Pedulla had the hot hand shooting 3s (9/16) and again we did not do a good job defending the perimeter.)
In the Syracuse game today, Clemson scores 3 points over a combined 13 minutes. 30% due to refs = 4 mins ... that leaves 3 points over 9 minutes ... if we get just one point per those 9 minutes, we are up by 6 with 3:37 remaing (instead of tied at 60). In this game today, Clemson wins because they avoid that drought pattern in the closing minutes ... so that is a positive. And that is two games in a row. That is a positive.
But the secret sauce here is ... Clemson is good enough to beat every team on thier schedule (and many in the NCAA tourney ... but only if they can avoid those droughts. (Captain Obvious, I know  "> )
Thanks for the read ">
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Legend [17318]
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Re: Closed out well ... but here's why its stressful
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Feb 10, 2024, 3:26 PM
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Impressive analysis and graph.
I am supper curious what you do for a living / college major. Gotta be something with data / science ?
My blood pressure would sure appreciate less stressful endings. 
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CU Medallion [55432]
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Re: Closed out well ... but here's why its stressful
Feb 10, 2024, 5:02 PM
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A blood pressure pill would do more for your BP that us winning by 10 the throughout the rest of the season
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CU Guru [1580]
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Re: Closed out well ... but here's why its stressful
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Feb 10, 2024, 3:30 PM
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Great analysis but I'm willing to bet that almost every team goes 2 min without scoring multiple times a game. It's the 4-5 min stretches along with that that usually get us. I would blame today's game being close on the 31% turnover rate.
Message was edited by: oklatiger®
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CU Guru [1404]
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Re: Closed out well ... but here's why its stressful
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Feb 10, 2024, 3:45 PM
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Yeah, I would bet this isn’t a unique attribute to Clemson’s play, but one experienced by many NCAA Teams. I would think if it was unique to Clemson, the announcers and media would continually talk about. As it is, the main place I see folks complaining about this is here. Either about today’s game or one that happened 30 years ago.
I do appreciate the graph and you actually using data to push your concerns. Looks like the graph doesn’t have the end of the game. You know, where we won it.
Many times on here people make blanket statements without the supporting data. Like, “ we always play bad after a long layoff.” Thank you for not doing that.
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Trainer [25]
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Re: Closed out well ... but here's why its stressful
Feb 10, 2024, 4:31 PM
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The end of the game is summarized by the last paragraph ... where they closed well and avoided the drought pattern. I started the chart after they started making their run ... I prefer to make observations on a positive rather than kicking when down
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CU Guru [1404]
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Re: Closed out well ... but here's why its stressful
Feb 10, 2024, 5:14 PM
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Would it have been more positive to post the entire game vs. the first 37 minutes of it? Regardless, the droughts do make hard to watch, but ending makes it worth the wait in today’s case.
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Orange Blooded [2976]
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Re: Closed out well ... but here's why its stressful
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Feb 10, 2024, 3:43 PM
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Great 2nd post
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CU Guru [1404]
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Re: Closed out well ... but here's why its stressful
Feb 10, 2024, 5:59 PM
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Got dragged hard on that first “positive” post.
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CU Guru [1404]
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Re: Closed out well ... but here's why its stressful
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Feb 10, 2024, 3:50 PM
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Today's issue was extremely poor passing, especially entry passes. The scoring droughts were not due to poor shots or bad offense. They never got a shot to take.
Clemson players did not recognize early on how aggressive Syracuse was and was going to continue being with on ball pressure.
Weak passes led to tips and pass breakups.
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Trainer [25]
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Re: Closed out well ... but here's why its stressful
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Feb 10, 2024, 4:26 PM
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Exactly. Those lazy passes and 20-ish turnovers definitely account for the bulk of those scoring droughts today. Those are things that can be fixed ... as evidenced in the UNC game. The UNC game was a complete game. Clemson is capable of this every game. I'm hoping for rowdy loud crowds the next two home games and the team will feed off this
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CU Guru [1701]
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Re: Closed out well ... but here's why its stressful
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Feb 10, 2024, 4:33 PM
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I agree with the analysis and the fact that we had lazy passing which can be corrected. On the bright side we had 41 rebounds in this game.
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CU Medallion [55432]
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Re: Closed out well ... but here's why its stressful
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Feb 10, 2024, 5:06 PM
[ in reply to Re: Closed out well ... but here's why its stressful ] |
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Well those 20 turnovers is what helps us to blow big leads in the second half of the past 3 straight games, and without that happening, the games just wouldn't be as exciting to us as they've been
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All-In [44054]
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I agree that droughts are frustrating and should ideally be minimized
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Feb 10, 2024, 9:09 AM
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but droughts affect every team. They are not unique to Clemson. It’s college basketball.
Basketball in general is a game of runs.
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Orange Blooded [4976]
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Re: I agree that droughts are frustrating and should ideally be minimized
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Feb 10, 2024, 5:59 PM
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You're not helping.
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