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Replies: 72
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All-In [27188]
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For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:04 PM
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We've had some great players who were 3-stars, and one who plays in the defensive backfield right now is Khalil Barnes--I wouldn't trade him for a 5* portal player if my life depended on it. Nope.
Oh, and we've recently had some 4*-5* players who were complete busts......though I'd rather not name names. So there's that.
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Orange Blooded [3615]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:13 PM
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I think its the offers that bother them and that we have to have fallback plans. Personally, I will just wait and see. We have had some good luck in the past.
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CU Guru [1692]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:14 PM
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Khalil Barnes was a composite 4*
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Orange Blooded [2182]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:16 PM
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Those silly facts ruin Ridgeland's dream world
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All-In [27188]
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Orange Blooded [4970]
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All-In [27188]
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Re: He's talking about on3 composite score
Dec 19, 2023, 2:45 PM
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Don't really care. The point is, ratings services have agendas depending upon which camp, which offers, etc.
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110%er [6397]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:45 PM
[ in reply to Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves ] |
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You used 247's ranking.
The poster said that Khalil was a "composite 4 star", which is true. He was rated as a 4 star by On3.
Either way, Khalil Barnes was rated as a top 400 player by every service. And he had multiple P5 offers.
Comparing him someone ranked as the 1784th best player in the composite is misleading. Not all 3 stars are the same.
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All-In [27188]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:46 PM
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Thank you for proving my point that ratings services are essentialy worthless.
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110%er [6397]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:51 PM
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They aren't worthless and you know that. But even if they were, offers should matter, right?
Barnes had multiple P5 offers, including ones from Notre Dame and Oklahoma. Wilkinson only has a P5 offer from Clemson.
That's why the comparison is silly. You should be comparing Wilkinson to other guys that Clemson has signed in the past that didn't receive multiple P5 offers.
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All-In [27188]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
Dec 19, 2023, 3:03 PM
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OK how's this: I'll stop when you admit that ratings services have agendas. Deal?
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110%er [6397]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 3:08 PM
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The scouts on the recruiting sites aren't being honest in their evaluations?
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All-In [27188]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
Dec 19, 2023, 3:18 PM
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Depends upon which scouts go to which camps. For example, it's interesting to see which scouts go to certain camps, and not others. Also interesting to see which schools attend certain camps....and not others.
It has nothing to do with "honesty"...lol
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 3:07 PM
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Don't care. My point is valid. You can point to "composites" but ultimately, ratings services use purely subjective criteria.
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CU Guru [1692]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 3:30 PM
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All player evaluation is subjective. If you're trying to make a point that "stars don't matter" or whatever you're just wrong. Anyone who has followed the development of predictive statistics in college football can tell you that the single most consistent predictor of future success is recruiting success, measured by composite player rankings.
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All-In [27188]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 3:34 PM
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All I'm saying is that the correlation between "stars" and performance is not the perfect predictive relationship that some on here seem to think it is.....we've had higher-rated players in the last several cycles who have been busts.
Sure, it's great to have 5 stars....but it's also a huge letdown when a 5 star doesn't perform because you've probably wagered that the player is going to be a cornerstone for your offense/defense.
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CU Guru [1692]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 5:39 PM
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It's an extremely strong correlation.
Did you know that with Dabo Swinney as head coach we've produced 16 first round draft picks that came out of classes he recruited as the head coach? Do you want to guess how many were composite 5* players? You don't need to guess, because I'll tell you - it was 7. 7 5* players, 7 4* players, and 2 3* players.
Now I know what you'll say "well first rounders aren't all that matter" and sure, they aren't...so do you know how many draft picks total? It's 59. He's had 59 players he's recruited as the head coach drafted out of Clemson. Wanna know the star breakdown? 16 5*s, 24 4*s, and 19 3* or lower.
But of course that means stars don't matter! We're placing more 3*s than 5*s right?? In raw numbers sure, but do you know how many players Dabo has recruited to Clemson? It's around 240 give or take some scholarship handouts. Wanna know the star breakdown? It's 21 5*, 101 4*, and 118 3* and lower.
So despite making up only around 9% of his total commits, 5* recruits account for ~44% of Dabo's first rounders and 27% of his overall draft picks. For 4*s it's ~42% of his recruits account for another ~44% of the first rounders and ~41% of the overall commits. As for 3* and lower? That's ~49% accounting for 12.5% of the first rounders and 32% of his total picks.
It's pretty simple - more stars = better chance they're going to turn into a player good enough to be drafted and significantly better chance they're drafted highly. Less stars = worse chance.
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All-In [44054]
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Wow, you just owned him.
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Dec 20, 2023, 12:42 AM
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There is no denying what you said.
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All-In [27188]
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Re: Wow, you just owned him.
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Dec 20, 2023, 4:57 PM
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LOL. Figured you'd chime in eventually, you shill.
I could literally name a dozen 4 star of our recruits who were flat out busts. But I don't want to name names.
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All-American [557]
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All-In [44054]
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No one said that rankings are perfect.
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Dec 20, 2023, 12:40 AM
[ in reply to Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves ] |
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But you’re living in fantasyland if you think that 5 stars aren’t much more likely than 3 stars to be top players in college and end up in the NFL.
For every Hunter Renfrows there are many 3 star prospects we’ve signed who never cracked the starting lineup.
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All-In [27188]
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Re: No one said that rankings are perfect.
Dec 20, 2023, 4:57 PM
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Ajou Ajou says hello. 4* bust.
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Legend [16912]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
Jan 17, 2024, 2:50 PM
[ in reply to Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves ] |
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Just as an fyi - statistical analysis has also shown that, after making it to the NFL, star ranking has no influence over career earnings or total NFL games played. So using the draft as an evaluation of player quality might not be as significant as believed. Recruiting rankings are a pretty loud echo chamber. A small number of athletes are identified at very young ages that are significantly more developed than their peers. These are often the children or relatives of athletes / coaches (or sometimes striving parents projecting their inadequacies on their kids) that are playing and training year round. The single greatest predictor of anyone playing a professional sport in the future is to have a parent who played that sport professionally. For football these names start making the circuit in middle school. There is not a ton of fluidity in the 5 and upper 4 star echelons. Clemson won its national championships with teams ranked outside the top 5 and players with a below 90 average per 247 sports. The last three years we’ve been in the top 5 and over a 91 player grade average. Perhaps there is something to the idea that Dabo does excel at player developing and performers better when polishing those who fit his system better than simply plugging in the best available recruit.
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Legend [18790]
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Orange Blooded [3441]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:16 PM
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Agreed 100%
Recruiting services are very politicized and even spiteful towards players who don't attend certain recruiting camps and show cases. Not every 5 star pans out. Plenty of 3 stars do actually pan out.
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Orange Blooded [2936]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:17 PM
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I agree , most of the complainers would not have wanted Renfrow on the team out of High School .
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Orange Blooded [3615]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:24 PM
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Doubt anyone minded Renfrow walking on as he did.
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Orange Blooded [4970]
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All-In [26514]
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We needed someone to fair catch punts.
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:19 PM
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Just kidding ... lol.
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Standout [313]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:20 PM
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It's unreal how much people care about stars.
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All-In [27188]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:38 PM
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Ruke was a 3*
Davis Allen was a 3*
Wade Woodaz was a 3*
Blake Miller was a 3*
Josh Sapp was a 3*
Avieon Terrell was a 3*
Khalil Barnes was a 3*
Tyler Brown was a 3*
I could go on and on but it will ruin Christmas for a few poasters.
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110%er [6397]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 3:03 PM
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Ruke: 2 years of football, ranked 730th in the nation with offers from Kentucky, Boston College, Duke, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Missouri, Northwestern, Oregon, Penn State, and Pittsburgh
Davis Allen: ranked 800th in the nation with offers from Duke, Minnesota, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, and Virginia Tech
Wade Woodaz: ranked 589th in the nation with offers from Louisville, Utah, Georgia Tech, Iowa, Maryland, Miami, TCU, Vanderbilt, Washington State, and West Virginia
Blake Miller: composite 4 star and ranked 208th in the nation with offers from Arizona State, Auburn, Florida, Indiana, Iowa State, Kentucky, LSU, Michigan, Northwestern, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Texas A&M
Josh Sapp: the only comparison that makes sense because Sapp was ranked 1357th in the nation with Clemson as his only P5 offer
Avieon Terrell: composite 4 star and ranked 239th in the nation with offers from Auburn, Arizona State, Colorado, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Miami, Michigan State, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, USC, and Wisconsin
Khalil Barnes: composite 4 star and ranked 398th in the nation with offers from Duke, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma Purdue, and Wake Forest
Tyler Brown: ranked 759th in the nation with offers from Minnesota, Louisville, and Virginia Tech
These are really bad comparisons, except for Josh Sapp. That one is the only one that makes sense. I hope Wilkinson can turn out to be as good as him.
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All-In [27188]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 3:10 PM
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Again, all you've done is prove my point: stars are useless in most cases. they are "bad" examples--your words---because ratings services do NOT all use the same, subjective criteria. If you had any knowledge of analytics, you'd understand what I mean. But since you're a socialist, I am assuming you have no mastery of numerical concepts.
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All-American [564]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
Dec 19, 2023, 11:39 PM
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Wish I could TU this twice, just for the socialist jab.
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Recruit [89]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:27 PM
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Cannot have a team full of five stars. He will provide depth.
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All-TigerNet [10216]
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Was Hunter Renfro a 3 star or walk-on?***
Dec 19, 2023, 2:30 PM
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All-American [564]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:36 PM
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1 P5 offer. Does that qualify taking someone nobody else wants, as we're often accused of over here??
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All-In [27188]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:38 PM
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The difference is y'all can't develop players. We can.
HTH
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All-Pro [663]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 4:27 PM
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You're right. Except for receiver and O-lineman.
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All-In [44054]
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Hall of Famer [24574]
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At least we still beat teams like Morehead state***
Dec 20, 2023, 5:03 PM
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Judge Keller®
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Legend [16912]
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I wonder if something happened in 2020
Jan 17, 2024, 2:54 PM
[ in reply to We did until about 2020. Then we stopped. ] |
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Something that made player evaluations more difficult, recruiting rankings more unreliable, and might have stunted player development. I wonder if something like that might have an adverse (and lingering) effect on a program that relied heavily on player evaluation and culture fit to succeed.
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CU Medallion [57156]
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All-In [27188]
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Re: It's not that you are a troll, per se
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Dec 19, 2023, 3:13 PM
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The most pathologically delusional fanbase in America--coot U. You have to give them that, anyway.
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All-TigerNet [10360]
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bottomline is......
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:37 PM
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our talent level has dropped significantly the last 3 years........mostly on the offensive side of the ball. Call it talent misjudgments by the coaching staff OR lack of development on the coaching staff.......regardless, the talent hasn't been there and it's shown on the field and in the W/L column.
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All-In [27188]
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Re: bottomline is......
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:39 PM
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I would agree but only at the WR position.....in "theory" if you believe in star ratings, we haven't had any dropoff in the other positions.
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All-TigerNet [10360]
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to each their own......
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:47 PM
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compared to our 2015-2019 teams I've seen a drop from:
WR (worst WRs since 2010 and we don't have 1 WR better on the team better than our BEST WR in 2010)
RB (I'd take ETN, gallman, & ellington even though he was earlier over what we have now. They're solid, but not great)
TE (I hear a lot of hype for "brinny" but don't see it)..........give me a lazy leggett over him
QB (Cade's obviously not DW4 or TL......who is, but he has a lot less weapons to work with to go with that)
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All-In [30837]
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he posted "BASED ON STAR RATINGS"
Dec 19, 2023, 2:52 PM
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which seems to be the catalyst for all these posts about Clemson's recent commit.
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Orange Blooded [4970]
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Agree, at multiple positions
Dec 19, 2023, 2:48 PM
[ in reply to bottomline is...... ] |
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QB, RB, WR, and TE talent declined.
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CU Guru [1045]
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Re: Agree, at multiple positions
Dec 19, 2023, 3:16 PM
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Wide receiver is the problem. Klubnik, Shipley, and Mafah would be serviceable with mire weapons at receiver.
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CU Guru [1045]
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Re: bottomline is......
Dec 19, 2023, 3:13 PM
[ in reply to bottomline is...... ] |
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You've presented a false dichotomy.
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Orange Blooded [4789]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:39 PM
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I don't think these kind of players should be our primary strategy recruiting wise, but they make a lot of sense at the end of the cycle when we have a need and are someone who would be a contributor in 2-3 years. The days of 4-5 stars sitting on the bench for four years are over so we need these "glue guy" types who are willing to wait their turn more than ever.
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All-TigerNet [10360]
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at our current exit rate there's a 30-40% chance he's portaling out in 2-3yrs
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:54 PM
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but he's definitely not the talent we need to depend on taking us to the "elite" level.
maybe App state, Jaxville state, ECU, etc... know something that no other P5 school knows but clemson?....
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Orange Blooded [4789]
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Re: at our current exit rate there's a 30-40% chance he's portaling out in 2-3yrs
Dec 19, 2023, 3:14 PM
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He's not elite and odds are never will be, but he's a lot less likely to portal out due to playing time and may possibly develop into someone that plays meaningful snaps as an upperclassmen.
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CU Guru [1025]
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Some on here would love a 3 star
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Dec 19, 2023, 2:42 PM
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…if he came from the portal. It conveys magical powers upon those that pass through it.
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All-In [27188]
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Re: Some on here would love a 3 star
3
Dec 19, 2023, 2:43 PM
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Yeah. Ask Coach Prime how that went......
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All-In [44054]
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Well, Deion improved his teams win total from last year.
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Dec 20, 2023, 12:49 AM
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Dabo reduced his team’s win total.
Instead of taking fliers on 3 star projects with no other power 5 offers, Dabo could be taking guys from the portal who have college experience and who can help us in the short term.
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CU Medallion [55430]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
Dec 19, 2023, 2:44 PM
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If you are talking about Joe Wilkinson, that kid on film looks to be as talented as a 4 star recruit IMO, and if someone can't see that in that kid, they don't know much about what talent is supposed to look like!!!
I'm not that big on our coaches bringing in a lot of 3 star player bc their star rating does give us something that tells us about the talent with most players, but the star rating IMO of this kids seems to off by at least a star. I think he plays as well as most 4 star players we have recruited to play that position, and better than some IMHO!!!!
Also, With the very limited look that was there on twitter, he looked to have a pretty good swing with a bat in his hands also. But, I understand that it's really hard for FB players to play both sports at the college level...
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All-In [27188]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
Dec 19, 2023, 2:48 PM
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The kid has good length and appears to have some speed. Doesn't have as much bend as you'd normally want in the hips for a corner, but I could see him play safety or nickel.
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CU Guru [1536]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 19, 2023, 3:04 PM
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Someone in an earlier post of 3stars forgot one Isiah Simmons.. I believe a low 3 star. Not bad. You never know for sure . I trust the coaches especially Dabo. He has done more than any of us could have ever imagined.. period.
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All-In [44054]
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Isaiah Simmons was a 4 star prospect and the #16 safety in his class.
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Dec 20, 2023, 12:53 AM
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He had offers from 11 power 5 schools.
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CU Medallion [64591]
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Gaines Adams and Hunter Renfrow...
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Dec 19, 2023, 3:29 PM
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Gaines Adams was a 2 and 3-star recruit coming out of Fork Union Military Academy. Before that, he played 8-man football for a small private school in Greenwood, SC. He would go on to become a first round draft pick in the 2007 NFL draft.
Renfrow was a 2-star recruit who only had offers from FCS schools but chose to walk-on at Clemson. He would become a two time national champion and a pro bowl selection.
The moral of the story...all these star gazers can KMGBHA.
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Hall of Famer [24808]
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'G' is for 'gorgeous', right...? ;~)***
Dec 20, 2023, 1:17 AM
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All-American [557]
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Renfrow was an exception to the rule...
Dec 20, 2023, 5:14 PM
[ in reply to Gaines Adams and Hunter Renfrow... ] |
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Hanging your hat on him is an act of desperation and a clear indicator of having no argument–
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Orange Blooded [4970]
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I'll be honest, based on his film
Dec 19, 2023, 3:30 PM
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I understand why you don't see the power 5 offers. He's a tough kid who hits like a bag of bricks, but I can't help but notice the lack the speed and quickness that you look for in a Power 5 Safety. He looks like a walk-on type guy who could eventually help us on special teams with his hard hitting. Hope he surprises everyone and makes me eat crow.
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All-In [44054]
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Are you suggesting that we only recruit 3 stars?
Dec 20, 2023, 12:36 AM
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Because that’s what it sounds like.
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110%er [5011]
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Re: For those of you bashing the 3* commit, you really need to check yourselves
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Dec 20, 2023, 12:50 AM
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U win National Championships with Christian Wilkins, Clelin, Lawrence, Tee, Mike Williams, Deshaun, Trevor, etc. Majority of next level guys will be the supporting cast for the elite players. U need both but u dang sure gotta have the elites if your gonna compete on a National stage. There is no question we’re missing the amount of elites we used to have, gotta figure out how to get those guys on campus either through recruiting, portal, doesn’t matter.
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Legend [18790]
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I look at offers over stars.
Dec 20, 2023, 5:25 PM
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Barnes, for example, was a three-star who had Notre Dame and Oklahoma offers.
Lots of eyes are better than a few. Sure, many staffs can be wrong, but more often than not, you should probably go with the consensus.
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