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My best guess on the game Saturday.
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Hall of Famer [22651]
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My best guess on the game Saturday.
Oct 10, 2022, 7:56 PM
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Do not take my posts talking about all the injuries to FSU as just an attempt to poor mouth and put on false humility. It isn't. But, I haven't got a clue why the point spread is so low.
Here is what I expect to happen.
1. I expect FSU to bounce back and play well. A lot of Nole fans are afraid that after such a tough loss, and a game we should have won easily after the first half, the team will fold. I don't. Norvell has changed the culture. He's not just spouting words when he talks about the team being a family and protecting each other and fighting for each other. They have had ample opportunities to quit in the past. They haven't. They seem to rally around each other and respond well to adversity. Some folks are predicting that we will end up 5-7 or at best 6-6. Don't believe that. Win or lose Saturday, the team will not quit. If Clemson comes into the game expecting FSU to roll over then an upset is not only possible, but likely. (However, Clemson won't do that. They will come in loaded for bear.)
2. Even with a valiant effort. Even with the Saturday night crowd roaring them on. Even with the team playing with "our backs against the wall, nobody believes in us, it's us against the world" the talent difference will eventually take over.
3. FSU defense has gotten better. The DBs are improving. But, they play their best when playing zone. They don't have the ability to match up 1 on 1 with Clemson WRs. And, the DL - due to injuries and lack of depth - does not have the ability to put consistent pressure on DJ or to stop the run game.
4. FSU OL is much improved over last year. But, they are average at best. They will be completely overmatched by the Clemson D. Travis will be bailing out of the pocket and running early and often. Our RBs need space. Not much, just a little. But, they aren't All-Americans. They are good. Losing Ward hurts, but the other two will suck it up and take the extra snaps.
5. I don't expect Clemson to jump out to an early 28-0 lead. I expect FSU to play well. But, in the end there is no reason for me to think Clemson won't win by double digits. And, I'm not willing to discount that it could be a blowout win for the Tigers. FSU will need to win the turnover battle by 3 to keep it close.
Disclaimer: I'm the same guy who said Bama would blow out aTm even without Bryce and UK would still handle SC even without Levin. So, what do I know?
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110%er [7200]
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Good Post!
Oct 10, 2022, 8:10 PM
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1. The problem FSU is going to have BrentFSU is: "the offense didn't play its best"! They will be out to prove it was an anomaly. I expect a week of very focused practice from the Tigers due to the historical greatness of the Seminoles.
2. FSU beat LSU in Louisiana on National TV and put CFB on notice. Dabo and co. will hammer this fact home all week. No chance the Tigers show up in Tallahassee half-stepping! I think they will be locked in similar to the Wake game.
3. XT, Mascol, Henry had to see the same thing I saw against Nancy! I think they will have an opportunity. But, "middle of the line pressure" is going to be more important against J. Travis. He's such a good QB man, he keeps his eyes downfield and extends plays very well. Reminds me of Russell Wilson with his combination of willingness to run, but keeping his eyes downfield on improvised plays. Very hard to contain; so a disciplined rush will be a necessity. For the players looking to make some draft stock improvements: "no better game than this one" due to the respect FSU gets. Murphy, XT, Mascol, and Henry!
4. I think you will see a little more tempo from the Tiger's offense! Perhaps, two plays are called in order to keep DTs on the field, especially if 1st down is successful.
5. 3rd down defense and more importantly 3rd down efficiency are going to be key! FSU will go for it if it's close; due to some problems in the kicking game.
6. BT Potter needs all touchbacks when Clemson kicks off. FSU has dangerous return personnel. When we punt = "pray"!
My thoughts! Not law!
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Hall of Famer [22651]
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Good observation on Travis.
Oct 11, 2022, 8:09 AM
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Last year, when the protection broke down - which it did on a regular basis, Travis pulled it down and looked to run. This was due to the fact that he was young and inexperienced and the fact our WRs were weak.
This year when the protection breaks down - which it does, but not as often as last year, Travis scrambles but still looks to pass. Our WRs (and TEs) are vastly improved since last year (pimarily thanks to the portal). Travis is more mature and has a much better understanding of the offense. (Which makes his two 4th quarter interceptions last week even more inexplicable. On both plays it looks like he had made his decision on where to throw the ball before the snap. That happened often last year, very seldom this year.
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All-In [48676]
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Re: Good observation on Travis.
Oct 11, 2022, 9:30 AM
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Here's what I think we'll see. FSU will deploy wakes strategy up front. No, won't be a slow mesh but modified version of it. Squeeze our DT's inside, then run delayed rb runs with patience, as well with Travis. Will enable him to move the pocket where's it's clean. Will enable him to buy time and run through progressions. If not there, take off and run... Moreso and better than Hartman.
We've got to remain patient and contain the edge and NOT get sucked inside, and safeties NOT bite on Travis eye movement and chase after him... If we do, he'll bomb us like Hartman.
As for offense. Scrap the QB draw on 2nd down and long. Same with WR screens. Quick slants on 1st down to A Williams, not Spector. Bringinstool only 15 snaps against BC and zero targets. He needs more. Wouldn't hurt my feelings to run two back sets, even if one is Keith Adams and pound the rock with Mafah to create long sustained drives in order to shorten game, and expose FSU lack of depth up front to wear down for 2nd half surge. Thanks to all for this thread. Love some x and o discussion.
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110%er [7200]
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A little Possum. W/TE's I think
Oct 11, 2022, 6:28 PM
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I think Allen and Birningstool's near absence was by design.
It could be BC took them away; but I don't think so. They are much like Johnny Wilson(#14 for FSU at 6'7). I'm taking my chances on getting a D.P.I with that match-up. "Throw it up, Throw it up"!
Clemgalalways® If they haven't been practicing that slow mesh since fall camp; I think it would hurt them more than it helps! Doing it against scout team won't be the same against the Clemson front.
Pittman and Wilson and the RB catching swing passes is what I worry about "some". What is keeping me on pins and needles about FSU is Jordan Travis!
How will we rush him?
Will we rush him or make him be patient all the way down the field?
I think FSU will look at the Furman video and go, "if we have successful screens, we could take it to the house let alone a big gain"! So, we will see some of those. The DL has been doing a really good job of batting screens and quick game passes down all year and will need to continue Saturday.
I see FSU using a bunch of that.
DJU needs an efficient game with no turnovers and efficient on 3rd down. We can't get into the following:
1st down: screen or quick game.
2nd down: run off tackle or QB draw.
3rd down: 7 route at the sticks.
4th down: punt.
We have to have 3rd down and less than 3 and we need to convert. Converting will keep a thin FSU defense on the field. After the initial adrenaline has worn off; those legs will start giving way. Test the depth.
On the season; the best DL FSU arguably(NCSU) has faced was LSU: "they have 13 sacks on the season"! Clemson only has 15; but when you play Leary and Hartman you aren't going to get there a bunch.
Against LSU, FSU sacked Daniels 4 times. They gave up zero sacks.
The OL will need to keep DJU standing upright.
In fact, if the OL plays well, "I expect to win this game" by at least 10 points.
Clemson is better than LSU, NCSU, Louisville, Duquenne,BC and Wake~
But, none of that matters here.
It's FSU and they have a deep tradition and much like Clemson, players bring their A-game when playing good competition. FSU is dang good competition.
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Orange Blooded [3601]
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Re: My best guess on the game Saturday.
Oct 10, 2022, 8:15 PM
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*Thanks for the analysis, Bret. I am with you, except, I think the FSU DBs will match up with our WRs. No gimmies there.
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Orange Blooded [3728]
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Re: My best guess on the game Saturday.
Oct 10, 2022, 8:30 PM
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I concur, FSU DB’s can matchup with this WR corp. Close first half, CU pulls away in the 4th quarter.
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All-TigerNet [11073]
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RAT POISON!!!
Oct 10, 2022, 8:16 PM
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LOL!! Actually, a very good post and much class as always from BRETFSU. I agree almost 100%
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Legend [16142]
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Bret is a standup guy and I enjoy his posts. He clearly...
Oct 10, 2022, 8:44 PM
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...loves his Noles and that's fine by me because he posts with respect and is clear-eyed about the subject matter. Wish we had more posters like him.
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All-TigerNet [11073]
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did you read my post or just react to the subject?
Oct 10, 2022, 8:51 PM
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I've been TU BretFSU posts for almost 20 years
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Legend [16142]
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Agreed with your post!
Oct 10, 2022, 9:20 PM
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Didn't mean to seem I was arguing with you lol.
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110%er [8563]
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Re: My best guess on the game Saturday.
Oct 10, 2022, 8:52 PM
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Only 1 needed. We average 170 yards rushing a game and FSU averages 204. Whoever gets the closest to their average will win.
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110%er [6972]
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Our WRs are nothing special, so your DBs may be ok.***
Oct 11, 2022, 4:45 AM
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110%er [5020]
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Re: My best guess on the game Saturday.
Oct 11, 2022, 4:56 AM
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14-13 FSU at the half.
31-28 in favor of the Tigers at the end
However,If Clemson doesn’t commit to running the ball Saturday , it may get them beat. I think the biggest advantage and the one that will win it at the end is the advantage Clemson has at kicker. FSU will miss a kick or 2 to lose it at home
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All-In [25413]
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My Friend, there has never...and I mean NEVER...been
Oct 11, 2022, 6:07 AM
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any game that we've had against FSU that I wasn't on pins and needles.
That's because I know what the Noles have accomplished for many years. They may have a bit of a downturn occasionally, but a team like that is potentially dangerous, for they know how to win. It's a matter of aligning the stars in their favor, so to speak, and if the motivation and ooooomph is on hand...then look out!
Hence, why...again...I am approaching this game on pins and needles. I expect us to win. I don't care if it's by one point. I expect FSU to put up one he1l of a fight. I don't expect the Noles to give in.
There, I've said it.
And best wishes to you...not necessarily to your team at least this coming Saturday! lol
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