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Orange Blooded [2685]
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Have 3 Turnovers Ever Had Such a Big Impact on Impression?
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Sep 22, 2023, 11:02 AM
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We had 3 awful turnovers against Duke. We shouldn't have had them and that's on us, but if we didn't then we probably would have won that game 28-14. If that would have happened we would be about #6 or so right now and this would be one of the two biggest games of the weekend. We'd be favored and most of the discussion would be about the potential rematch regardless of the outcome. Our defense (which has been excellent) would be talked about as one of the best in college football.
But we had 3 bad turnovers... and as a result:
1) About 80% of pundits are picking FSU to win
2) FSU is "clearly more talented"
3) FSU is now favored in Vegas
4) The "Dabo Dynasty is over"
5) FSU might beat us "comfortably"
6) We'll never get 5 star players again
7) Our secondary can't possibly match up against their wide receivers
8) We probably won't be able to move the ball at all against FSU
9) We will be lucky to go 7-5
10) We are the 5th hardest game on Notre Dames schedule now
That's a whole lot of change in opinion for 3 turnovers. Yes - I realize Duke exposed some of our flaws. Just like Boston College exposed some of FSU's. The difference was the turnovers, so we didn't manage to squeak a win when our flaws were exposed like FSU did.
Time to Spot the Ball. Time to show everyone that 3 turnovers doesn't define this team.
Go Tigers!
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Orange Blooded [3140]
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Re: Have 3 Turnovers Ever Had Such a Big Impact on Impression?
Sep 22, 2023, 11:21 AM
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I mostly agree, but it was actually 4. Cade threw a horrible pick 6 against Charleston Southern in the first half of the 2nd game.
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Freshman [-98]
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Re: Have 3 Turnovers Ever Had Such a Big Impact on Impression?
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Sep 22, 2023, 11:32 AM
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No doubt that football is now overstudied - it blows my mind but losing can be better than winning these days. Since it’s becoming more about gambling, why not play best of 5 quarters and keep track of every movement of every player. Yes, even bowel movements. We could hang around pregame and analyze the excrement like greyhound races?
Clemson took 3/5 quintets from FSU as predicted by the OL combined pregame output, which was 5# more than the FSU DL. FSU acknowledged that the loss was due to substandard poopage from the DL. “We intend to introduce more fiber into our players diets. Silage offers prebiotics as well as probiotics and our silage facility is cutting edge.” The farmers might get that joke…
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Oculus Spirit [91510]
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Astute & interesting viewpoint kgpittm!
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Sep 22, 2023, 11:46 AM
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Yep, 3 lousy TO’s essentially shut our program down or at least set it back some years.
Game at DV Saturday is a chance to crawl out of the ditch we dug by ourselves!
Go TiGERS..scalp the Noles!
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Legend [17969]
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Re: Astute & interesting viewpoint kgpittm!
Sep 22, 2023, 4:13 PM
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Yep, 3 lousy TO’s essentially shut our program down or at least set it back some years.
Ain’t nobody as dramatic as the LbB!!!
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Hall of Famer [22445]
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We basically had 5 turnovers when you consider that we had
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Sep 22, 2023, 1:40 PM
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two blocked kicks deep in Duke territory.
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All-TigerNet [11129]
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Re: Have 3 Turnovers Ever Had Such a Big Impact on Impression?
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Sep 22, 2023, 1:44 PM
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Being 3-3 in the last 6 games with two of the wins against CSU and FAU worries me more about the trajectory of the program.
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Orange Blooded [2685]
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That's a legitimate concern
Sep 22, 2023, 4:01 PM
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I don't have a problem if someone points out that this is the worst 6 game stretch for Dabo in a long time. There are definitely concerns, but still - had we not had the turnovers in the Duke game, then the dialogue even on that would be very different. 4-2 in the last 6 isn't as concerning as 3-3... we've had a couple other 4-2 spans in the last 10 years. Again - 3 turnovers (or 5 if you count the special teams blunders) make a ton of difference
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All-TigerNet [13061]
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I don't think we wouldn't beaten Duke by 2 TDs
Sep 22, 2023, 4:30 PM
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even if turnovers had been more even. The rest of the stats were far too even (some even in Dukes favor) for that to have happened. I think it probably would've come down to the last drive one way or another.
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Orange Blooded [2685]
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Here's why I think 28-14 in our favor without the 3 to's
Sep 22, 2023, 4:53 PM
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Assume we score a TD on 1st fumble instead of fumbling inside the 5... we take a 14-13 lead at that point in the 3rd Quarter
Assume we score a TD on 2nd fumble instead of fumbling inside the 5 and having it returned leading to a TD for Duke. Now 21-13.
Next drive we'd punt when we stall out at midfield instead of trying to force things and turning it over on downs. Duke pinned and punts their following drive.
We takeover at midfield and move the ball and instead of an interception we kick a Field Goal. Now 24-13.
Let's assume Duke drives 49 yards like they did next drive and then gets a FG. 24-16. Trade it out for a TD and a 2 point conversion and its 24-21. Maybe they don't get anything and its 24-13 still.
Next drive we burn the clock running and either run it out or add a field goal to get to 27. Now its 27-13, 27-16, or 27-21. Or maybe its as close as 24-21. Maybe its not 2 TD's we win by, but I'm pretty certain we win fairly comfortably without the turnovers. Duke had 1 TD drive of more than 50 yards all day. They had 3 drives of 50+ yards, but only one of those resulted in a TD. If we didn't give them a short field, they generally didn't get more than a FG.
We had more 1st downs, better 3rd Down conversion rate, more passing yards, more running yards, and less penalties. They were better than us on turnovers, punting, and placekicking.
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All-TigerNet [13061]
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To me that type of logic falls apart when you consider the
Sep 22, 2023, 5:23 PM
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other circumstances. After the 1st fumble Duke took over backed up at their own 10 yard line, went 3-and-out and punted to our 40. We started the next drive with excellent field position.
Now if we score a TD instead of fumble there we go up 14-13, but Duke starts at the 25, not deep in their own territory. Would they call that drive the same as they did one from the 10 yard line with a lead? I doubt it. So maybe Duke puts a drive together there instead of going 3-and-out. Potentially they score and retake the lead, or maybe they get a couple 1st downs and then punt from midfield and pin us deep.
Once you change one major event in a game, you can't really assume anything past that point plays put the same.
Also, just assuming we score a TD from the 7 is pretty bold given what I've seen from our offense this year. That drive could've easily stalled there and resulted in 3 points, or even another missed FG given how placekicking has gone.
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Orange Blooded [2951]
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We need to forget the Duke game....
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Sep 22, 2023, 5:46 PM
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You bring up valid points and all are accurate. At the end of the day, Duke won. The path forward is about winning and hopefully some of the noise from that awful game will dissipate.
Go Tigers!!
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