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+175K jobs in April....
General Boards - Politics
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+175K jobs in April....

1
2

May 3, 2024, 8:46 AM
Reply

Unemployment at 3.9%. Black Unemployment at 5.6%. Both numbers are good.

Job growth was broad, including in manufacturing.

Not a spectacular report, but not bad either.

The Biden non-Hellscape "Economic Hellscape" continues.

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Re: +175K jobs in April....

1
1

May 3, 2024, 8:47 AM
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MAGAts are pissed. 😆

2024 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Yaaaayyyy! Stagnation !


May 3, 2024, 8:51 AM
Reply

Hip Hip Hooraaayyy!

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Re: +175K jobs in April....

1

May 3, 2024, 8:52 AM
Reply


100,000 jobs added in DEI departments
70,000 jobs added by the IRS
5,000 jobs added by Biden shell corporations


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Re: +175K jobs in April....

1

May 3, 2024, 9:41 AM
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Nice try.

Job gains in healthcare, transportation/warehousing, construction, retail, etc.

HELLSCAPE!!!!!

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Meanwhile ... in Consumer Price Index land ...


May 3, 2024, 8:54 AM
Reply

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-price-index-cpi

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OMG, a whole 3.5%? Whatever will we do?....


May 3, 2024, 5:00 PM
Reply

NY Fed uses Multivariate Core Trend inflation, and it's coming in at 2.6%.

We've already mostly conquered inflation, which is just slightly above the FED target of 2%.

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Re: OMG, a whole 3.5%? Whatever will we do?....

3

May 4, 2024, 11:03 AM
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What world do you live in? Statistics are for losers! Go grocery shopping and fill your gas tank every week, and then tell me we're near 2%! LOL!

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Re: OMG, a whole 3.5%? Whatever will we do?....


May 4, 2024, 11:05 AM
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We finally agree on something. You are correct. No debating that.

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Re: +175K jobs in April....

6

May 3, 2024, 8:56 AM
Reply

https://x.com/wesbury/status/1783480577858920649

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If she's a hollerer, she'll be a screamer.
If she's a screamer, she'll get you arrested.


Re: +175K jobs in April....

1

May 3, 2024, 12:46 PM
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Re: +175K jobs in April....

1

May 3, 2024, 7:18 PM [ in reply to Re: +175K jobs in April.... ]
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That guy is an idiot if he thinks 50% of the GDP is from government spending. It's a large proportion, but the GDP is 25 trillion and the whole federal budget is around 6 trillion, with 1.5 trillion of that deficit. 1.5 out of 25 is not 50%

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No, he said 50% of real gdp growth was attributed

1

May 4, 2024, 2:28 PM
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To government spending

Which is pretty accurate

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LPR at 62.4%, on par with the late 1970's.

3

May 3, 2024, 9:20 AM
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8.8 million jobs unfilled. Again, if you don't have a job, and ARE NOT LOOKING for one, you are not part of the "official" unemployed in America. The difference is reflected in the labor participation rate. Likewise, if you work a job, part time, at $10 an hour, you're officially employed, even though 25 hours a week at $10 an hour is not going to feed, cloth, shelter you. The data is flawed.

Likewise, with inflation, anything volatile is excluded, so if you can concentrate on other stuff, it normalizes inflation. Housing is excluded from inflation too, as it's too volatile. Energy as well. So your house cank skyrocket, and energy can skyrocket, but you only see the inflation of OTHER THINGS YOU BUY going up as a result, without the root cause, which we also ALL BUY being factored in.

Real unemployment is around 24%, if you account for all of those people with no jobs that simply don't exist in the unemployment numbers, or who work part time making less than $25K a year.

The best part is an even longer trend of devaluing the dollar and the DOMESTIC purchasing power of that dollar. Housing was more affordable during the great depression than today. The average yearly income for a household was 35% the purchasing price of an average home in the Depression. Today's average household income pays for only 15.8% of an average new home.

None of this has anything to do with Joe Biden or Donald Trump by the way. It doesn't have anything to do with republicans or democrats either. It has to do with a bipartisan, entrenched, system of economic disinformation, and misinformation, and manipulation to make people think everything is great. And you're a perfect example of the result. Republicans and democrats BOTH benefit from manipulation of economic data. Democrats and Republicans BOTH benefit from illegal immigration, trade deficits, federal deficits, federal debt, a devalued dollar, etc. Why? Because money buys votes, for dems with entitlements, for pubs with military spending. It also buys reelections, as long as you bring the bacon home to your constituents.

None of this is political, and there is, and will be, no political solution to it.

Every member of the present American tax base, the taxpayers who fund the government, each one owes $267,000. Every taxpayer. All of them, each owe that, as an average. Who voted for THAT? Was it the Dems? Pubs? No. No one voted for that, yet the people we elected did vote for that, using the misinformation above, for many decades now.

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Ahhh, the fake "hellscape"....

1

May 3, 2024, 9:28 AM
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I know you guys really really really really want things to be bad in the economy. We have an election, and we need to pretend that we're living in a waste-land, a hellscape of Biden's doing.

Here's the prime age employment rate. This is people in the age group of 25-54, which are the main full employment years in people's lives. This rate is higher than at any point since 2001. It upticked in April from 80.7% to 80.8%.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060

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Re: Ahhh, the fake "hellscape"....

1

May 3, 2024, 9:35 AM
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Smitty, Tig is not a shill for anybody. He's as close to apolitical and objective as there is on this site.

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He's a nice guy, but he spouts right-wing talking points****


May 3, 2024, 9:55 AM
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And this is exactly why we're in the state we're in.

4

May 3, 2024, 11:59 AM
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I've railed on our government and economic system for years, decades on this site. It wasn't until maybe 5-6 years ago that I saw things more clearly. I'm still a conservative. I'm conservative with money, and politics, and all things that are important. That being said, I'm not married to a political party. Republicans (my party, I guess, or formerly whatever) has railed on our national debt for 40+ years now, on illegal immigration for the same period. GWB had a pub Congress, amidst the worst years for illegal immigration on record. Nothing done. Obama never touched the minimum wage, with a dem Congress. Trump never mentioned a peep about a border wall his first two YEARS with a GOP Congress. NO ONE has spent less, or cut spending, no matter the rhetoric or party.

The left has railed on taxing the rich, then trot out some scheme to raise the INCOME tax, when the wealthiest Americans AVOID INCOME like the plague. Biden ALMOST proposed a very good debt (assisting) solution with his capital gains tax increase. BUT, even then, he let me down. Capital gains will be taxed at income rates for those with INCOME over 1 million. This means Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Elon Musk, almost every CEO of a major corporation paid in stock options, ALL will be exempt, and pay capital gains at the same rate as a decent plumber or electrician, since Jeff Bezos' INCOME is about the same.

The conclusion I came to 5 or so years ago, maybe a year or so before the pandemic, was like a lightning bolt. I was once convinced republicans held the solution to all our problems. The GOP will save America. I was so desperate I voted for Trump in 2016 over Hillary. I hoped Trump was one of these types with a public persona that masked a cunning and effective leader behind the scenes. Wrong. Oh well.

The truth lies in seeing common problems that are never addressed. Why is illegal immigration never solved. It's not the fault of dems or pubs. Congress hasn't done anything about it, even with a GOP Congress and President. Why? Our trade deficit sucks. Trump railed on that on the campaign trail. Nothing budged on our trade deficit for four years of Trump, until the pandemic hit. Our debt is insane. Trump railed against that, again with 2 years of a GOP Congress. Nothing happened. Debt increased at the same rate as before Trump, until the pandemic, then it exploded.

For the dems, minimum wage hasn't budged since Obama took office. It's been $7.25 since 2009, even today with a bad bout of inflation, it's unchanged. Even with a dem Congress, Obama didn't touch it. Dems have wanted single payer healthcare and they still don't have it. We have a bogus tax system that taxes income, when the wealthiest don't HAVE INCOME. I hear dems talk about taxing the rich, as the "wealth" gap grows wider and wider under their leadership. And every time, they propose some adjustment to the INCOME tax. That specifically punishes WORKING PEOPLE, as you have to WORK to EARN income. The wealthiest Americans don't exchange labor for income. They invest money, watch it grow, then sell the asset at a higher value, pocketing the profit, while never actually exchanging labor for that money. That money is capital gains, and is taxed at a lower rate. Furthermore, they don't even bother selling assets, they just leverage them to issue debt, which they can spend as income, without being taxed at all on it, only selling what little assets are needed to service that debt. And the gaul of a democrat politician to stand in front of people and say they're going to "sock it to the rich" with an INCOME tax rate increase. Please. That's insulting if you know enough rich people.

But if you take off the political blinders, step back, and look at the big picture, everything makes sense. Not in a good way, but the only way it makes sense. The system is bipartisan at the core, and the core is money. It started with detente and leaving the gold standard under Nixon. From there we steadily legislated for decades to make debt cheaper. Why? Well, for the legislators in Washington, so they could get reelected. Bring home the bacon, spout the right rhetoric for your constituents, and you'll be reelected forever. We then pivoted to allowing in illegal aliens to work, deflating domestic labor costs, and increasing domestic labor supply. We embraced Free Trade. NAFTA, as a prime example. We shipped manufacturing and a large chunk of our middle class overseas, to lessen the cost of goods we couldn't afford to make in the US. So goods got cheaper. Labor became plentiful. Inflation lowered over time as more domestic labor, and cheaper foreign labor deflated the cost of goods and services in the US, allowing Americans more buying power, with the benefit of cheaper debt. We could afford bigger houses, nicer cars, fancy electronics, etc. Congress could afford deficits as it cost a slim percentage of federal revenue to service our cheap debt. So Congress could spend more and more without issues. The wealthiest Americans saw the biggest gains, as they could sit back, grown money without exchanging labor, and then use that asset as collateral for low-interest loans, which is the "income" of the wealthiest Americans. Only subject, like Congress, to making the minimum payments to service interest.

The proof is in the pudding that this isn't a single party doing this. Meanwhile, the federal government throws out economic data to the benefit of Wall Street, and the voters, and by extension to the benefit of the very government providing the data. It's a huge conflict of interest, never discussed. The federal government releases economic data, and that data determines if the federal government must pay $300 billion to service the debt, or $1T. Sure, there's absolutely zero incentive ($700 billion dollars anyway) for the federal government to report bad or misleading data to the people who independently decide how much the government must pay on its debt. They know the data is cooked for maximum debt serviceability. Powell knows when he talks about strong employment and the unemployment rate, he knows that number isn't the percentage of unemployed Americans. He knows energy, housing, and other volatile commodities are left out of inflation data, and then he says any changes will be slow as they have to wait forever for the data, because it's normalized meaning it TAKES forever to see any trends, and even then there's a massive delay meaning any possible action that needs to be taken, will be taken too late, as we saw in 2022.

There is no republican solution to this. There is no democrat solution to this. There is no tax solution to this. This is 100% a democracy problem, and honestly one envisioned by our founders, who ironically provided a solution, which like everything else above, is never mentioned. And our founders knew that this solution would likely ONLY be used to force some type of a systemic or structural change, not to add or deny rights. And that is how it was designed to be used, and should be used in this case. 20 years ago.

Anyway, I'm done. Above are my talking points. They're not talking points of the right or the left. They're the talking points that make sense when nothing else seems to make sense. And they indict the republicans just as much as the democrats. And until a politician steps in front of a camera and says ANYTHING I mentioned above, any other vote is futile. The next Presidential candidate to mention an Article V convention to enact Congressional term limits, and a balanced budget amendment, will get my vote and I don't care if they're a democrat, a republican, or a fidocrat, a dixiecrat, an amoeba, or a rhinoceros. Until then, I'm not even going to bother. We will have a collapse and/or a revolution before I ever see a President endorsing that. heck, you want to see an assassination of a President, find someone brave enough to suggest Article V, seriously, and consistently. They will NOT last.

Oh, one more thing. Congress can trade stocks with impunity and immunity. They can buy the next benefactor's stock for the next DOD contract, or the next infrastructure bill, then ride the stock up and sell, all day long. THIS is why capital gains will not be touched, in any real way. Congress is making bank on the scheme. That's how they all get rich while serving the people. Using insider trading and relatives investing, while spending the people's money knowing the winners in the market before anyone else. Again, nothing has been done about this, and won't. And less than 20% of Americans approve of the job Congress does (or doesn't do). That's a strong bipartisan number.

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Nice summary, but it missed the most important factor

3

May 3, 2024, 12:43 PM
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Beautifully expressed points of view; unfortunately you’re missing the biggest problem with our system of government.

The Federal Bureaucracy.

Since G.H.W.Bush left office, all presidents except Trump were / are ceremonial heads of state, each one taking their directions from cabinet members who (primarily) get their policies from bureaucrats.

I’m not talking about the titles which are affixed to legislative proposals. I’m talking about the contents within the bills, which include copious expenditures or ‘rules’ that the bureaucracy wants.

(The corruption of the bureaucracy by numerous entities that, at best, consuder the USA’s interests as a secondary priority, is another matter. Regardless of whether the unelected people in the bureaucracy are corrupt or not, our elected politicians should be giving the orders -&- making sure that their orders are carried out.)

Thus, foreign policy is a perpetual mess, special interest groups dominate the policies and laws that run our country, and long term benefits are sacrificed for short term advantage to the government.

(***). ^^^ is why so many former Republicans are so passionate about Trump. Trump is hardly the ideal person and his sound-bite laden public speeches are largely indistinguishable from his POTUS predecessors. However, the federal bureaucracy views Trump as a mortal threat to their way of life. This ‘mortal threat’ sentiment is not limited to the high echelons of each agency; it permeates to the non-manager staff levels.

Trump is absolutely correct in his high priority agenda item to reduce the power of the bureaucracy. It should not surprise anyone that the bureaucracy itself, as well as most elected Uniparty politicians, are so desperately committed to destroying Trump. Thus, Trump’s first term was clogged up with lawsuits and seditionist activities from within the bureaucracy.

Look at the actions that Trump tried to do in his first term. For the most part, the bureaucracy sabotaged his agenda. For a second term (if the bureaucracy doesn’t figure out a way to permanently disable him or worse), he’ll be more effective and will pick better (non-seditious) cabinet members.

Too bad that Trump had to be the guy to do this. Fortunately, he’s our only option with the endurance and fight in him to give us a chance.

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So, I was right....

1

May 3, 2024, 4:39 PM [ in reply to And this is exactly why we're in the state we're in. ]
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You spout right-wing talking points. Screaming about debt & waxing for the days of the gold standard is hard-right tight-money economic nonsense.

The Gold Standard is why we had a Great Depression to begin with. And not being on a tight monetary standard is why we haven't had a Great Depression since then. If not for the Fed, the 2008 financial crash would have become another Gret Depression.

And being on forced balanced budgets via an amendment is insane. If we had forced a balanced budget in 2020, it would have been far worse than we had. Same in 2008/2009.

You need to read up on basic economics 101.

I could go on and on. I do believe you when you say you're disillusioned with both parties. And I do agree they've both made mistakes. But your solutions would only make things worse.

And overall, America is a far better place today than it was 50-60 years ago. People like you who are constantly predicting doom and seem to see know good in how things have gone in America are willfilly blind on many very good things about our society.

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Re: And this is exactly why we're in the state we're in.


May 6, 2024, 8:10 AM [ in reply to And this is exactly why we're in the state we're in. ]
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You are mixing up INCOME with WAGES. Capital gains are part of income. The billionaires you mention have plenty of income that gets taxed, but a lot of it was at the long term gains rate. They have plenty of short term gains as well, and those get taxed as regular income already. Qualified dividends are at the long term rate since Bush.

We already had a penalty for having too much of your income taxed at the long term rate, the NIIT that hits for incomes over about 250k. Clue: the two I’s stand for INVESTMENT INCOME. But that was just another 3.8%. Now it’s a 17% increase for incomes over 1 million. Don’t be a fool, Bezos, Gates, and Musk will pay a lot more tax with that rule change.

Bottom line is most billionaires pay a lot of income tax (except for Donald Trump, obviously). Over half the country doesn’t pay any.

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So 20% of peolpe 25-54yo are not employed?

2

May 3, 2024, 10:07 AM [ in reply to Ahhh, the fake "hellscape".... ]
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How does one have a 3.9% "unemployment" rate when 20% of people 25-54 are not employed?

You can subtract about 5% from that 20% as being on disability, even though the fed gives no methodology on that graph, because who needs that? People who receive SSDI and work are still probably "employed" in your graph, so I'm being generous counting them all. So that still leaves 11%. Where are they?

I'll wang up and listen.

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Half of those people have long Covid, half need time tho protest

1

May 3, 2024, 10:21 AM
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And half are drug dealers working for the Chinese-Mexican drug cartel!

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Oddly, the only people I know who are unemployed are trust funders


May 3, 2024, 11:10 AM [ in reply to So 20% of peolpe 25-54yo are not employed? ]
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I don't know anyone who doesn't have a job. Do you?

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Personally, no. But I do know many through my job.


May 3, 2024, 12:05 PM
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A question I ask daily....."Are you employed". Most who are not are either living off a relative's kindness, or are on disability.

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People that want jobs can find them....


May 3, 2024, 5:02 PM [ in reply to Oddly, the only people I know who are unemployed are trust funders ]
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for the most part. And in aggregate, we have had very strong job creation for the last 3 years. This is the quickest jobs recovery from a recession probably since WW2.

The Red Hats don't like that. But it's true, no matter how desperately they wish it weren't so.

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That's right, and it's the highest since 2001....

1

May 3, 2024, 4:44 PM [ in reply to So 20% of peolpe 25-54yo are not employed? ]
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There are many people who don't want to work. That's always been the case in this country. My wife hasn't had a job in 25 years, and it was her choice, as she focused on our children & volunteer work. Many people are retiring because they have good nest eggs built up, as the baby boomers age and enter retirement age. Many people don't enter the work force until mid-20's because they're in college.

We have a very good labor-force economy right now.

And your view that there's 24% unemployment is nonsense. That implies there this huge group of people desperately wanting a job that can't have it, and we all know that's not true.

And THE REASON that our growth in jobs has been so strong over the last three years is that our government invested in people instead of being tight-fisted with budgets.

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Re: So 20% of peolpe 25-54yo are not employed?


May 3, 2024, 7:37 PM [ in reply to So 20% of peolpe 25-54yo are not employed? ]
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There's still such a thing as a non-working spouse. Even my attorney's wife, who does the books and serves as witness #2/notary doesn't count as employed because she doesn't collect a salary. There are many people who don't "work," defined by collecting wages, for one reason or another.

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24%?? You're saying unemployment is as bad right now as it was during the


May 3, 2024, 9:37 AM [ in reply to LPR at 62.4%, on par with the late 1970's. ]
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great depression?

C'mon man.

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They calculated unemployment differently back then

1

May 3, 2024, 10:34 AM
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So you (conveniently) can't make the comparison. But hey, that's my entire point. It wasn't until 1948 that an official method/definition was accepted for calculating unemployment, and even that has been changed/modified since. Unemployment stats from the depression were estimates done years later based on unemployment insurance claims made at the time. But that was a new program at the time and it didn't last very long so there was overlap, making a solid/rolling number difficult to obtain.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/unemployment-today-vs-the-great-depression-how-do-the-eras-compare.html

But one thing is correct, and this has more to do with the long term decline of the dollar. A house was more affordable during the depression than it is today. The average household income during the great depression paid for 35% of the price of the average home. Today the average household income pays for 15.8% of the value of the average home. This lack of affordability is due to the fact that we now can leverage debt far more than was commonly done back then. Heck, they're toying with 80-year mortgages in Canada.

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Round #2 of Wall Street and their CDOs...?***


May 3, 2024, 12:19 PM
Reply



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Re: They calculated unemployment differently back then


May 4, 2024, 6:36 PM [ in reply to They calculated unemployment differently back then ]
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You probably want to make your argument with median household income and median house price instead of average. Average household income is around 100k. The median is smaller at around 80k. The average house price now is 492k (down 50k from a year ago). The median is also smaller at 418k, down 60k from a year ago.

The real comparison is to compare the average house built in the depression to the average house built now. I'm certain they are very, very similar. But then, I've been drinking.

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Re: LPR at 62.4%, on par with the late 1970's.


May 3, 2024, 10:27 AM [ in reply to LPR at 62.4%, on par with the late 1970's. ]
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Well said. Totally agree

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Re: LPR at 62.4%, on par with the late 1970's.


May 3, 2024, 7:21 PM [ in reply to LPR at 62.4%, on par with the late 1970's. ]
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In the 70s, they generally did not count women in the labor participation rate. It's apples and oranges to compare that stat between the 70s and 2020s.

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Re: +175K jobs in April....

1

May 3, 2024, 9:39 AM
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Smitty,

I'm with you. Everything is awesome!!

If:

You enjoy peanut butter and jelly sandwiches
Riding your scooter to work
Moving back in with your parents

BEST EVER!

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Re: +175K jobs in April....


May 3, 2024, 9:57 AM
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Job growth is slowing, but it's not bad at all.

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Re: +175K jobs in April....

5

May 3, 2024, 10:22 AM
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The whole truth and nothing but the truth!

When will the pre-pandemic employment numbers be realized? Biden and the left is taking credit for cherry picking and can't get there even with all the migrants and Federal Government jobs added.

U.S. Full time employees:

158.6 million 2019
134.1 million 2023

Federal Government Employees

2.1 million end of 2019
2.95 million Septemper 2023

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Re: +175K jobs in April....

1

May 3, 2024, 10:29 AM
Reply

Got eeeeeem.

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Re: +175K jobs in April....

1

May 3, 2024, 7:51 PM [ in reply to Re: +175K jobs in April.... ]
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~158 million is total employment for 2019, not full-time. By that measure, it's 161 million now.

At the end of 2019, the average hourly wage was$28.37. It's now $34.75. That's a 22% increase, exactly the difference in CPI between Dec 2019 and now.

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You're not going to get the Red Hats to accept any good economic news....

1

May 4, 2024, 10:13 AM
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They simply are not allowed to in the light of day. Perhaps in the thick of the night, the truth will come out in a quiet closet in their homes. But not on this board.

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Employment down, inflation up...Both missing expectations. "Good...news."


May 4, 2024, 1:40 PM
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"False" would be a better term.

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From a bastion of the far-right propagandizers... CNBC. They see it differently.


May 3, 2024, 10:56 AM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/03/jobs-report-april-2024-us-job-growth-totaled-175000-in-april.html

Twist that.

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No, there's nothing to twist....


May 4, 2024, 10:19 AM
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175K jobs is less than expected in one month. But it's hardly a catastrophe. And one more month of sub 4% unemployment, and prime-age employment still at the highest level of any time since 2001....this is all a continued string of very good economic news.

The twisters are people like you. Not me.

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I didn't write the above article, Dumb Axx. Keep believing the BS numbers.***


May 4, 2024, 10:47 AM
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You don't even read what you link, moron...


May 4, 2024, 12:57 PM
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The report raised the prospect of a “Goldilocks” climate where growth continues but not at such a rapid pace to force the Fed to tighten policy further.

“With this report, the porridge was just about right,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade. “What would you like at this point the cycle? We’ve had interest rates jacked up pretty high, so you would expect to see the labor market slow down a little. But we’re still at pretty high levels.”....


“This is the jobs report the Fed would have scripted,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “The first downside payrolls surprise in several months, as well as the dip in average hourly earnings growth, will bring the rate cutting dialogue back into the market and perhaps explains why Powell was able to be dovish on Wednesday.”


So, basically this was a good report to people who are tasked with dealing with inflation. Not too hot, not too cold. Chance of a soft landing continues and this is what the FED wanted.

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So great for the investor class and screw the working class...? Probably so.***


May 4, 2024, 1:43 PM
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