Not an unexpected consequence of worldwide events over last three years.

Just got this email from my financial advisor:

"We are adjusting our base case to reflect a moderate U.S. recession beginning mid-2022 and extending into mid-2023. Our U.S. unemployment rate forecasts are correspondingly higher. We still expect a eurozone recession later in 2022, to begin after the U.S. recession. Internationally, we expect persistent inflation and declining economic growth through 2023, although inflation should ease under the economic slowdown. Revisions to our developed-market and global economic growth forecasts reflect these greater stresses in the global economy."

So I guess these guys think we are in a recession or will be shortly. A couple of weeks ago they provided an interesting chart of the last 11 Bear Markets. If we go into a recession we can expect it to take about 20 months to pull out of the bear market... Ugh... The 70's ride again - let's just hope it doesn't take as long as it did in the 70's for the bear market to recover.

Tropical

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Jul 7, 2022, 4:24 PM

Just a culmination of medical / pandemic response, national political policy, national & international monetary policy, international relations and a significant international event.
How I see it ….
- Pandemic creates disruption of demand and labor
- Cutback to supply chains. Longer term disruption to supply chains since slower to react.
- Lots of money injected by political and monetary policy. Money floating around. Makes people and Wall Street happy!
(Did someone say this might be inflationary? No worries!)
- Oh goodie _ Demand bounce back
- Oh crap _ Supply chains cannot react. Prices up but supply / demand oscillation will level out. Inflation is transitory (fingers crossed.)
- Oh no we’re Fed big time. Russia invaded Ukraine. Worldwide oil and gas markets in major disarray. (Gosh if only the US and western countries were better prepared for this scenario. But they were saving the environment by limiting the supply side. Mental note - maybe next time save the environment from reduction the demand side of fossil fuels? Did someone say nuclear power?)
- War creates more inflationary pressure in energy and disruption to food supply chains. Not forgetting human tragedy.
- OK BIG Inflation! Whoa Nelly! The Fed and other world banks put the brakes on!
- Too little too late. Crash the economy hits the Recession Wall.

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Reveiw of the last 11 Bear Markets...

Dang, Putin has been wrecking economies since before he

Thanks Joe Biden...

Not an unexpected consequence of worldwide events over last three years.

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