8-5 ... a long look down the road

Feb 14, 2016, 5:44 PM

Yesterday's win over GTech was literally a "line in the sand" victory for postseason hopes. And if the hop-skip-and-jump shot hadn't suddenly become legal in Cameron, the Tigers would be on the cusp of a crucial double-by in the upcoming ACC tournament.

But anyone with a memory knows how those things go at Duke. So, here we are in 7th place with 5 games to go. I'd like to take a quick gander at how the rest of the regular season pans out, both for us and the teams we'd need to pass for a top four seed. The good news is we're one game out of a top 4 seed. That's not pleasant, but it is possible ... and not in a "so there's a chance" possible, either.

To start, here's where everyone stands this morning:

1. UNC 9-2
2. Miami 9-3
3. N. Dame 9-4
3. Virginia 9-4
5. Duke 8-4
5. *L'ville 8-4
7. Clemson 8-5
8. Syracuse 7-5
9. Pitt 6-5
10. Fla. St. 6-6
11. Vtech 5-7
12. GTech 3-9
12. NC State 3-9
14. Wake 1-12
15. Boston 0-12

* Note that Louisville's place is meaningless, since the Cards won't be playing in the tournament. So, technically, Clemson is 6th when it comes to seeding, though 7th in the standings.

Were the tournament this week, we'd get the first day off, play the winner of Vtech and Wake, then Notre Dame.

But we don't want to do that. We want a Top 4 seed and a double-day off. To do so, Clemson cannot finish worse than 12-6, meaning one more loss. Why/ Because of how the rest of the season works out elsewhere. Here are the likely runs for the rest of the teams currently at or above .500 in conference.

1. UNC: The Heels actually have a tough row to hoe from here out, including road games at Duke, NC State and Virginia. Other games are at home with Pitt, Duke, Miami and Syracuse. The Heels are good enough to win them all, but they won't. Look for a split with Duke and a loss at Virginia. They end up at 14-4

2. Miami: Looking for a team to skid over the next few weeks? I'd look at Miami. The Canes have 3 losses, all on the road. Half of their remaining six games are on the road, including at UNC and at Notre Dame. One of the home games remaining is vs. Louisville, another vs. Virginia. The Canes will either impress the heck out of me or they'll fall back.

3. Virginia: After that loss at Duke, will the Hoos bounce back? Or will road games at Miami and Clemson, and home games vs. Louisville and UNC get to Virginia? All the Hoos losses are on the road, and Clemson plays a game that the Hoos have trouble with .... in between games against UNC and the Cards. Just about the prefect time to catch them.

4. Notre Dame: The Irish have been playing well lately, and their home stretch isn't nearly as tough as the other leaders. They have a trio of road games against lesser foes, and only Miami remains as a real roadblock. I don't see ND falling back to the pack.

5. Duke: Anyone's back starting to seize up? As long as the Devils can get the kind of help they got yesterday, they'll keep winning. But with back-to-back road games at UNC and L'ville coming up, Duke could easily fall back ... and did I mention their closer is against the Heels?

6. Louisville: Clemson doesn't care where the Cards end up, since they won't be in the tourney. But obviously it behooves us for the Cards to win out. Three of their remaining games, vs. Duke, at Miami and at Virginia, are against teams we're trying to catch. Knowing they have nothing to play for, do the Cards go out fighting or do they fold.

7. Clemson: There's no one remaining on our schedule we can't beat. That said, we won't beat everyone. Our only chance to gain our own ground is against Virginia.

8. Syracuse: Quick, who's the hottest team in the ACC? Yep, after a dismal start, the Orange have won 8 of their last 9. And in their remaining schedule, Syracuse really can't help us advance. Their only game against a Top-4 contender is at UNC. Honestly we'd rather the Orange lose that to give us some wiggle room over them ... though we do hold the tiebreaker with Syracuse.

Our best outcome: Assuming Clemson finishes 12-6, which is a fair outcome based on remaining schedule, the best thing to happen would be if Louisville went on in a blaze of glory. However, given the Cards' weakness in road games, Duke would be the only "help us" win we're likely to see.

Just about anyone the Heels beat is good for us. with a little luck and reasoned officiating, they could hand Duke 2 losses, plus take down Miami in Chapel Hill. I will never cheer for UNC, but it's close to an "enemy of my enemy" scenario.

Miami would need to lose 3 of their remaining 7 games. One tonight at FSU would be a nice start, dropping the Canes into the 8-4 logjam just ahead of us. With road games at UNC, ND and home vs. UVa and L'ville, all is possible.

The other option is for Virginia to lose two ... one of them to Clemson on March 1. Of course, they messed things up falling to the Devils Saturday, but they could make up for that by lsing to UNC or Louisville. If the second loss comes to Miami, it could well keep the Canes above Clemson in the standings ... and we need to be at least tied with Miami, because we hold the tiebreaker.

So, IF Duke can drop one more game than Clemson...
And IF Miami can drop one more game than Clemson...
And IF Virginia can drop two games, one to Clemson ...

At the end of the season, the standings would look like so:

1. UNC 14-4
2. N. Dame 13-5
3. Virginia 12-6
3. Clemson 12-6
3. Miami 12-6
3. *L'ville 12-6
7. Syracuse 11-7
7. Duke 11-7

At this point, there'd be no way to figure if Virginia or Clemson had the true 3 or 4 seed, but it's clear that supper is still VERY much on the table for the Tigers.Heck, even if Duke finises in the 12-6 logjam, Clemson holds the tiebreaker there as well.

Exciting days ahead!

Message was edited by: RevDodd®

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At this point, I am glad Miami won last night, considering Lunardi at ESPN had FSU as one of the last four teams in (with Clemson as one of the first four out). FSU's loss helps us more (than a Miami loss would) since FSU would be a more solid NCAA tourney bid with a win over a ranked Miami squad.

I think we should be more concerned with the teams outside of the ACC on the bubble (Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Washington and Saint Mary's), and even teams behind us in the ACC standings that are currently projected as being in the tournament (Syracuse and FSU).

Our schedule is the most favorable amongst the teams ahead of us in the ACC standings, so there will be movement amongst Miami, Duke and UVA, but I am more concerned about Syracuse and FSU being bubble teams even though we have a better conference record than both. We win out and we are in the Big Dance because we would be riding a six-game winning streak into the ACC tournament with a win over a ranked UVA.

8-5 ... a long look down the road

Re: 8-5 ... a long look down the road

I'm not sure how much a loss to Miami would effect FSU's

good write up Rev... I think Miami and Duke both end up with

Re: Duke never has a really brutal stretch

Great analysis, Rev.

Thanks Rev, always appreciate your hoops perspective.***

Feels like if we make a good showing in the tourney

Re: 8-5 ... a long look down the road

Bumped with last night's results

Re: 8-5 ... a long look down the road

Agreed: But right now, they are legion...

11-7 is my prediction.

Could be ... but if we want a Top 4 seed

And my apologies: I just saw this was in the baseball thread

the ball is still round***

wait... were you not talking about baseball?***

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