In the category of "It's the offseason..."

Mar 11, 2024, 10:45 AM

ESPN ran a simulation of how an expanded College Football Playoff would've affected the college football landscape from 1966 on, where Clemson still came away with three national titles, but not all in the years that they came in reality.

The 1981 and 2016 seasons remained in Clemson's ledger, but a No. 7-seed 1978 Clemson team makes a national championship run and the 2018 campaign goes to Alabama in the simulation:

On 1978... Another year with a classic split title. Yet another year that would have been perfect for a playoff, especially an eight-teamer. Heading into bowl season, top-ranked Penn State was the only 11-0 team, but we had one-loss teams ranked second (Alabama), third (USC), fourth (Oklahoma), fifth (Michigan) and seventh (Clemson). PSU went to the Sugar Bowl to play, and lose to, Bama, while USC outlasted No. 5 Michigan in the Rose Bowl to snag a split title. As you see from the title odds below, there was no single standout team in 1978, and six would have entered the playoff with a solid title shot.

Quarterfinals: No. 12 Michigan State (8-3) at No. 1 Penn State (11-0), No. 7 Clemson (10-1) at No. 6 Nebraska (9-2), No. 9 Houston (9-2) at No. 3 USC (11-1), No. 10 Notre Dame (8-3) at No. 2 Alabama (10-1). (Michigan State scored the Big Ten's autobid because of a head-to-head win over No. 5 Michigan and an equal conference record.)

Title odds: USC 23%, Alabama 21%, Nebraska 15%, Penn State 14%, Clemson 11%, Michigan State 11%, Notre Dame 4%, Houston 3%.

Here's the random simulation. It's a delight:

Quarterfinals: No. 12 Michigan State over No. 1 Penn State, No. 7 Clemson over No. 6 Nebraska, No. 9 Houston over No. 3 USC, No. 10 Notre Dame over No. 2 Alabama. Four road wins! Told you it was a balanced year.

Semifinals: Clemson over Michigan State, Houston over Notre Dame.

Finals: Clemson over Houston. Cinderella No. 1 beats Cinderella No. 2 to finish the final eight-team playoff.

In the expanded CFP simulation timeline, Clemson would be tied for the sixth-most national titles in the span behind Alabama (8), Miami (6), Georgia (4), Ohio State (4) and Oklahoma (4).

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/39686587/how-playoff-decided-college-football-national-champs-1966 ($)

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