Re: Our best basketball team in 14 years is tied for 7th in the ACC

mpercy®

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Joined: 8/14/01

Feb 19, 2024, 8:32 AM

First, the overall losing season was year 3. Year 2 was 16-15...as was year 5...as was year 10. Years 7 and 12 were 17-16.

So 5 years out of 14 were exactly 1 game above a losing season, plus the losing season, plus a 17-14 season. Fully half of the seasons were just BARELY above .500.

And last year, with a 23-11 record, Clemson was still left out of the NCAAT (I won't mention the choke job against Morehead State in the NIT) so all those wins against Podunk U were not worth very much.

Brownell's overall winning percentage is .582. Over 14 years, that means he's won 37 more games than a .500 record, or +2.6 games per year over .500.

But really, you count winning 7-8 scrimmages against SC State and the like as a winning season? I only have to look at ACC conference play.

Brownell's ACC records:

9-7 (T4th)
8-8 (7th)
5-13 (11th)
10-8 (6th)
8-10 (T9th)
10-8 (T7th)
6-12 (12th)
11-7 (T3rd)
9-9 (T8th)
9-11 (9th)
10-6 (T5th)
8-12 (10th)
14-6 (T3rd)

7-7 (with Brownell's "best team ever").

Overall 124-124 (.500) in conference play. Average finish 7th/8th.

Oh, sure. Brownell has won more game that any previous HC at Clemson. That's only because we haven't fired him. He' also lost WAY more games than any head coach at Clemson.

His .582 percentage IS higher than Larry Shyatt's .455, but is lower than Bill Foster's .595, lower than Rick Barnes' .607, lower than Oliver Purnell's .611, 1 game's worth higher than Cliff Ellis's .580 (otoh, Cliff Ellis was ACC COY...twice...and won an ACC regular season title).

To give some credit, Brownell's ACC winning is better than anyone before him. However, he has the added benefit of playing in an expanded conference, with 20-game seasons, and unbalanced schedules (often not playing the top teams more than once). For example, his record-setting ACC finish last year (14-6, .700) is 4 games more than anyone else ever won, but still is a lower percentage than Cliff Ellis 10-4 (.714) season, and that 10-4 record won that CC regular season title, where Brownell's "record number of ACC wins" managed 3rd.

Plus, it's not by THAT much...Brownell is .500 in ACC play, Purnell was .464, Barnes was .438 (Shyatt, well, Shyatt was .250). If Barnes had won 4 games that he lost, he would have been at .500 (1 more game per year). If Purnell had won 4 games that he lost, he'd have been at .500 (about 1 game every other year).

In his 4 years at Clemson, Barnes made the NIT, then the NCAA 3 times, including a Sweet 16. In his 7 years at Clemson, Purnell, who started with Shyatt's teams, went to NIT 3 times, playing in NIT championship, then 3 NCAAT bids. In 14 years at Clemson, Brownell had 4 NIT bids (two first round exits), 3 NCAAT bids (one Sweet 16).

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They are talented, but statistically speaking, you could argue that they are not necessarily the most talented and experienced team he has ever had. According to the following model, here are his teams over the his tenure (minus the 2010-11 year due to lack of inclusion in the model) in terms of Offensive Performance Rating (OBPR), Defensive Performance Rating (DBPR), and Overall Performance Rating (BPR). The "B" refers to the model being in the Bayesian paradigm.

2023-24: 11.0 OBPR / 4.7 DBPR / 15.6 BPR
2022-23: 6.6 OBPR / 6.7 DBPR / 13.3 BPR
2021-22: 5.5 OBPR / 4.6 DBPR / 10.1 BPR
2020-21: 2.7 OBPR / 9.0 DBPR / 11.8 BPR
2019-20: 1.5 OBPR / 7.8 DBPR / 9.3 BPR
2018-19: 4.2 OBPR / 11.0 DBPR / 15.2 BPR
2017-18: 8.8 OBPR / 10.3 DBPR / 19.2 BPR
2016-17: 8.4 OBPR / 4.2 DBPR / 12.6 BPR
2015-16: 6.4 OBPR / 7.7 DBPR / 14.1 BPR
2014-15: 0.0 OBPR / 7.5 DBPR / 7.4 BPR
2013-14: 1.8 OBPR / 9.3 DBPR / 11.0 BPR
2012-13: -1.8 OBPR / 5.9 DBPR / 4.0 BPR
2011-12: 2.1 OBPR / 6.3 DBPR / 8.4 BPR

While this year's team is his best offensive team by a significant margin, his best overall performing team was his 2017-18 team, which went to the Sweet 16. The 2017-18 team was the second best offensive team he's had at Clemson. However, a large difference in why that team is rated as a better team was due to their defensive performance. In fact, this year's team rates as one of his worst teams according to this model. Now, it should be noted that in the last month, this current team's defensive performance has improved significantly. Thus, hopefully it can continue to improve while maintaining the offensive performance to become his best overall team (according to this statistical model).

Note:
* OBPR (Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating) reflects a team’s expected offensive efficiency. This is interpreted as the points per 100 possessions better than average expected when playing against an average D1 team. A higher rating is better.

* DBPR (Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating) reflects a team’s expected defensive efficiency. This is interpreted as the defensive points per 100 possessions better (lower) than average when playing against an average D1 team. A higher rating is better.

* BPR (Bayesian Performance Rating) reflects the sum of a team’s OBPR and DBPR. This rating is the ultimate measure of a team’s expected overall strength. This is interpreted as the number of points the team is expected to outscore an average D1 team by in an 100 possession game. A higher rating is better.

Source: https://evanmiya.com/?team_ratings

Our best basketball team in 14 years is tied for 7th in the ACC