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Replies: 42
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Legend [16921]
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Friday Net Update
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Mar 15, 2024, 9:23 AM
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Clemson fell one more spot to 36 last night. There are 4 teams in the ACC competing for 2, maybe 3, at large spots (not counting Duke and UNC who are locks) - Clemson, Pitt, Wake, UVA. The gap from the top to bottom of this pile has shrunk from 17 NET places to 14 NET places today. I see one scenario where Clemson might get left out. If UVA beats Pitt for the championship, the final NET order of these ACC teams would likely be Pitt, UVA, Clemson, Wake. Pitt will pass Clemson in NET if they beat UNC today. UVA would likely pass Clemson if they best NC State and Pitt. Pitt’s loss to UVA would not bring them back down below Clemson.
Clemson has maintained a 20+ place lead over the next closest ACC teams until this week. Everyone knows the ACC is getting 3 teams so that made Clemson “a lock”. Clemson is also heavily overseeded in most brackets. There 36 NET ranking should correspond with the last 9th seed taken. In his latest update Lunardi and Jerry Palm has us as a 7. Bracket Matrix has us as the 1st 6 seed. That’s 15 places overseeded. The fifth highest overseeding as of yesterday’s number (South Carolina is off the charts first and would be unprecedented). So if ACC NET rankings continue to contract and fall, and the committee is even slightly less enthusiastic than the bracketologists, we could be out.
As Brad is want to do, he has opened the door for failure. He just usually does it earlier and with less drama. I think it’s unlikely this scenario plays out and Clemson is still in. But there remains a non-zero chance of falling out.
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All-American [595]
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Re: Friday Net Update
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Mar 15, 2024, 9:26 AM
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So would I be correct in assuming that our 11 losses are 100% on CBB and the 21 wins are 100% on the players?
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Legend [16921]
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Re: Friday Net Update
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Mar 15, 2024, 9:34 AM
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It’s impressive that you can employ so many fallacies in a single sentence but since it is obviously insincere I have no reason to respond further.
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Team Captain [460]
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Re: Friday Net Update
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Mar 15, 2024, 10:31 AM
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It's scary that you spend so much time writing drivel ab something you obviously know nothing about, the tournament.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: Friday Net Update
Mar 15, 2024, 10:41 AM
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Tell em coot.
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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good analysis... I think Pitt has to beat UNC to be in. Even then, it may not
Mar 15, 2024, 9:28 AM
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be enough. If they were to get in, they would have the worst OOC SOS of any team ever selected for an at-large. It seems in the past, when teams were on the bubble, the committee has been consistent to always go back and look at OOC SOS to make decisions.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: good analysis... I think Pitt has to beat UNC to be in. Even then, it may not
Mar 15, 2024, 9:38 AM
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If Pitt makes the ACC Final with a 24 win season and sub 40 NET ranking, sub 40 Ken Pom, sub 30 ELO, and gets left out of the tourney they would have much greater grievance than ours from last year. Their RPI is terrible because their SOS is terrible. But that is specifically what the NCAA was supposedly moving away from.
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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I agree... win today and they should be in no doubt... but it would be
Mar 15, 2024, 9:54 AM
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a first as for as OOC SOS goes. That's why I think a loss today and they may get left out. I'm not sure they can run with UNC.
Do you see any scenarios in other games today that could effect our NET? I am really curious where we will fall when ordering all 68 teams. When I look at the current 8-9's Lunardi has... Nebraska, Colorado St., and FAU are all playing today.
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Letterman [257]
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Legend [16921]
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Re: According to the NCAA, strength of schedule still matters
Mar 15, 2024, 4:51 PM
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Yes, but I think this article from the NCAA explains it a little better:
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-05-12/net-explained-ncaa-adopts-new-college-basketball-ranking-replace-rpi?amp
The old RPI correlated very highly with SOS ranking. Meaning, the SOS rank order was very similar and predictive of the final RPI rank order. Now, the NET correlates heavily to the adjusted efficiency rank on a site like KenPom. SoS still matters, but is measured differently and is less directly impactful. But, part of adjusted efficiency is how you perform relative to others against similar strength of schedule. I was speaking in the broadest strokes. Most people don’t care much about this stuff.
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CU Guru [1580]
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Re: good analysis... I think Pitt has to beat UNC to be in. Even then, it may not
Mar 15, 2024, 12:24 PM
[ in reply to good analysis... I think Pitt has to beat UNC to be in. Even then, it may not ] |
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Exactly. Louisville loss aside the reason we didn't make it last year was OOC strength of schedule. The committee made it very clear that strength of schedule matters Pittsburgh's is lower than Clemson's was last year.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: good analysis... I think Pitt has to beat UNC to be in. Even then, it may not
Mar 15, 2024, 4:52 PM
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It wasn’t the SoS per se, it was that we lost to some bad teams.
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All-TigerNet [14475]
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Re: Friday Net Update
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Mar 15, 2024, 9:29 AM
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GOSH, YOU CAN ONLY DREAM. NEVER SEEN ANYONE WANT ONE OF OUR PROGRAMS TO FAIL. AND NO, WEDNESDAY WAS PATHETIC AND UNACCEPTABLE. DIFFERENCE IS , IT P!SSED ME OFF BUT IT MADE YOU IDIOTS GIDDY. I WILL WAIT UNTIL OUR NEXT LOSS, WHICH WILL COME , TO MAKE MY FINAL JUDGEMENT. AS I HAVE ALSO SAID YOU HAVE NO CLUE HOW I FEEL ABOUT THE JOB BRAD HAS DONE. BUT WHILE HE IS OUR COACH I WILL PULL AS HARD AS I CAN FOR HIM AND THE KIDS.
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CU Medallion [65530]
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Sad news flash for you. Nobody cares any more about your "final judgement" than
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Mar 15, 2024, 9:35 AM
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any of the rest of ours. Have a nice, indecisive day!
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Legend [16921]
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Re: Friday Net Update
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Mar 15, 2024, 9:40 AM
[ in reply to Re: Friday Net Update ] |
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Why does a rational examination of the underlying implications of the 2 ACC tourney games remaining offend you? We’re not playing so now you know which way you should be pulling.
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Associate AD [816]
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Re: Friday Net Update
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Mar 15, 2024, 9:41 AM
[ in reply to Re: Friday Net Update ] |
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Turn the caps off and stop stealing from your employer by posting on the internet
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110%er [5972]
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Orange Blooded [2000]
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All Clemson had to do was win against the bottom. Then this would be moot***
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Mar 15, 2024, 9:42 AM
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Orange Blooded [2868]
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Re: All Clemson had to do was win against the bottom. Then this would be moot***
Mar 15, 2024, 9:49 AM
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The NCAA committee has said they don’t select teams based on their NET ranking itself. It’s used to break wins and losses in the quadrants to provide a snapshot of who you beat and who lost to. Clemson’s strength in that selection room is their metrics like SOR. I don’t know if I buy the explanation but it does jibe with past tournaments where a team much farther down in the NET gets selected over others with a better NET ranking.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: All Clemson had to do was win against the bottom. Then this would be moot***
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Mar 15, 2024, 10:35 AM
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They did adjust the NET down to two components in 2020 which, in theory, made the NET ranking correspond more closely with the NET quadrant performance. There are still some factors in the algorithms that even mathematicians much smarter than myself have yet to crack. There are pretty fascinating sub-reddits where folks are trying to reverse engineer it. Clemson is 10-11 in q1&2. UVA is 10-9. Pitt is 9-8. So our NET rankings converging is pretty well reflected in the similarity of these quad performances. And UVA and Pitt, if they make the final, will each pick up 2 more quad1&2 games with one going 2-0 and the other 1-1. If the committee truly looks at that with fresh eyes, rather than ones than saw Clemson as 3rd in the ACC for 3+ months, then I think we become the last team in from the ACC. Whether we get in as a possible 5th bid would depend on a lot of factors in other conferences that I have not looked at.
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Letterman [257]
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Legend [16921]
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110%er [9735]
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Thank you for this logical post.
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Mar 15, 2024, 9:50 AM
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Clemson may get in.
But people (including our “coach”) are insane for thinking it is guaranteed.
Could be a nail biter Sunday evening.
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Orange Blooded [2420]
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Re: Thank you for this logical post.
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Mar 15, 2024, 9:58 AM
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They could also take how we completely collapsed down the stretch. Good teams usually get better. Good wins early in the season are good, but strange things happen with tournament wins and losses. I hope we make it, but nothing surprises me much anymore.
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Team Captain [460]
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Re: Thank you for this logical post.
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Mar 15, 2024, 10:33 AM
[ in reply to Thank you for this logical post. ] |
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We aren't insane. We are in. Please bet some money on it. I'd take any bet.
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110%er [9735]
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I said we MIGHT get in.
Mar 15, 2024, 10:55 AM
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How would I bet that it’s not a guarantee, though?
That doesn’t even make sense.
Try again.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: Thank you for this logical post.
Mar 15, 2024, 5:01 PM
[ in reply to Re: Thank you for this logical post. ] |
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I put it somewhere 1%. Ready to put up 100:1 odds? It’s the internet and you probably say yes, but c’mon. Any one who has watched the predictive tracker on a game on espn has watched a game be 90%+ odds until the very end, when it suddenly plunges the other way.
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110%er [8591]
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The net is used ONLY and exclusively to evaluate a teams wins and losses not to
Mar 15, 2024, 10:12 AM
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Explicitly sort the teams for selection. So Clemson rising or falling a few spots in the final ranking is irrelevant; it’s how the teams we’ve played against move in the ranking that matters. NC State’s run has actually helped us in the selection metrics because our loss against them is no longer a Quad 3 loss; I don’t know where Pitt and UVA sit but if they continue to win and move up in the ranking it could potentially help us as well. Currently Clemson is 21st in quad 1 wins, has another 5 quad 2 wins, only 1 quad 3 loss, and no quad 4 losses; this is why we’re a lock for the tournament.
Clemson is in the tournament period; let’s move on.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: The net is used ONLY and exclusively to evaluate a teams wins and losses not to
Mar 15, 2024, 10:38 AM
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Ok. You haven’t “looked where Pitt and UVA sit” but you are certain of our status relative to them? They have one less win than us and winning q1/2 records and each have the opportunity to improve upon that. But thanks for confirming that you’re not the rational, voice of reason you like to portray.
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110%er [8591]
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I dont know where UVA and Pitt sit with respect to all of the teams theyve
Mar 15, 2024, 10:50 AM
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Played agains over the entire season; I suspect you don’t either. If one or more of the other teams that have made a run impacts UVA or Pitt’s quad wins or losses then it impacts their overall resumes. For example if, as you’ve laid out, we continue to drop in the NET does that cost UVA , Pitt, or NCSU (who all beat us) a quality win and weaken their resumes? I clearly don’t have as much time to waste as you do poring through schedules and results, that’s why I’ll take the word of the 100 or so bracket “experts” who all say we’re a lock.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: I dont know where UVA and Pitt sit with respect to all of the team theyve
Mar 15, 2024, 11:01 AM
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“Experts”. Lunardi is lowly ranked amongst those who submit to Bracket Matrix, of which the overwhelming majority are amateur hobbyists. And the folks actually saying we’re a lock - besides Lunardi - aren’t bracketologists, they’re the ACC broadcast talking heads. If I more time to waste I’d publish my own. But I have called whether we are in or out with perfect accuracy as long as I’ve been on this board and can usually do it in February. This is, far and away, the closest I’ve seen it. We were in better shape And I still think we’re overwhelmingly likely in. Some of us like to discuss the minutiae of sports. And since we’ve mostly been out of the running by mid-February under Brownell there hasn’t been much to contemplate. The closest it has been during Brownell’s tenure was 2011 when we ended up as a play-in 12 seed. But we were 4th in the ACC back when we still played everyone twice. There was no doubt we were getting in.
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110%er [8591]
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My bad Ill get out of the way and let you have your fun
Mar 15, 2024, 11:12 AM
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Enjoy the snipe hunt
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110%er [7497]
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Legend [16921]
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Re: those braketologist rankings are done on exact seeding and variance - Lunardi
Mar 15, 2024, 4:58 PM
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Bracket Matrix actually has a score index that is based on projected seed position not just who is in your field, which is where he isn’t highly ranked. The fact is most rarely get more than 1 wrong because they finalize up until the last second and there are really only 3-5 of any debate by the time you make it to Selection Sunday.
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Team Captain [460]
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Re: Friday Net Update
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Mar 15, 2024, 10:29 AM
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Get a job.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: Friday Net Update
Mar 15, 2024, 10:40 AM
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I’m retired. I can post as I see fit without stealing from an employer. I recommend it.
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All-TigerNet [11664]
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I'll tell you, after the last two games, my confidence is riding a little low!!***
Mar 15, 2024, 11:01 AM
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Orange Blooded [2868]
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Re: I'll tell you, after the last two games, my confidence is riding a little low!!***
Mar 15, 2024, 11:28 AM
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Some of you people don’t follow the NCAA bubble watch in March. Clemson is no where close to the first four out like last year. The bracket analysts were correct in putting the Tigers near the cut line last year and are correct to put the Tigers in the 6-8 seed line this year. The Tigers are not going to get their slot taken by lesser conference bid stealer. The discussion relevant right now is whether the Tigers show up for their opening game. That’s highly questionable given the way they have played last couple weeks.
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All-In [47750]
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HHEEEELLLLLLOOOO,
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Mar 15, 2024, 11:55 AM
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NIT
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110%er [5484]
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Re: Friday Net Update
Mar 15, 2024, 12:29 PM
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Good analysis.
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CU Guru [1349]
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Re: Friday Net Update
Mar 15, 2024, 4:55 PM
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I personally would rather stay at home that get sent home in round 1. I mean why do we think tbat being 1 of the top 68 means anything. In no contest is being say the 40th best team mean anything good! This is stupid. If we can't get in and win a couple of games then save pur money, stay home, and pay the buyout!!!
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Varsity [215]
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Re: Friday Net Update
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Mar 15, 2024, 5:08 PM
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viztiz I really enjoy your well reasoned and thoughtful posts. And you are very civil (IMO) with your reponses to those who disagree with you Thank you
WT
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All-In [27193]
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Re: Friday Net Update
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Mar 15, 2024, 5:02 PM
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But the possibility of us staying in is much greater than us falling out of the NCAAT, if I follow correctly.
Therefore, I see this as an improbable outcome.
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Replies: 42
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