Are we already in a recession?

Jul 13, 2022, 6:37 PM

About a week ago I got an email from my financial advisor predicting the USA would be in a recession by mid-2022 that they think will last into mid-2023. Based on my dining experiences over the past week I'm starting to think we may already be in a recession...

Myself, my wife and her family went to a Cracker Barrel for dinner (around 6:30 pm) on Monday and half the restaurant was closed down. The half that was open was only about half full. It appeared they either didn't have enough servers to open both sides of the dining area or were cutting back on employees due to low customer turnout. We've eaten at this Cracker Barrel (Gastonia, NC) for years and have never seen it this "un-busy" even on a Monday night.

The wife and I to O'Charley's yesterday for lunch (12:30 pm) and there was only 3 tables occupied in the whole restaurant. From the best we could tell there was only one waitress and the hostess on duty. I'd bet there was only one cook in the kitchen but once again - I've never seen this O'Charley's so empty during the peak lunch hour.

Today my wife and I had lunch at a McCallisters Deli at 12:30 and the restaurant only had half the crowd that we normally see when we eat lunch there.

My in-laws own a commercial kitchen that they rent to a local take-out lunch/dinner caterer. The caterer has been renting this place for well over a couple of years and has done very well. However, the caterer told us that in the past 2 months business has dropped significantly - almost by 50%. He told us that some of his food costs have more than doubled in the last 18 months.

I still see a good bit of traffic driving to the big city (Charlotte) but things just feel like they are slowing down. Maybe it has been a weird week and a lot of people are just out of town on vacation or something. Anyone else seeing signs of a slowdown?

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Are we already in a recession?

Yes IMO. The economic metrics and relationships may differ from previous recession.

Yes IMO. The economic metrics and relationships may differ from previous recession.

Yes IMO. The economic metrics and relationships may differ from previous recession.

Yes IMO. The economic metrics and relationships may differ f

The layoffs have not started in earnest yet ... but they are

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