Clemson looks to be only the second team to start outside College Football Playoff committee's top-four and win the national title. First, they have to crack th Read Update »
. . . with that 1% drop in our chances, from 83% to 82%, is that their algorithm now figures that we have a 1-in-6 chance of not winning out & a 1-in-100 chance of getting left out of the CFP as an undefeated conference champion.
Re: TNET: Advanced outlook: Playoff scenarios after 1st ranking, Clemson-NC State projections
Nov 6, 2019, 4:13 PM
To really parse what the 538 algorithm tells us, you have to look at which teams really control their destiny. I put Baylor and Minnesota on the bottom because neither has a legit chance of winning out.
These are the teams who "we win, we in". One each from the Big Ten, SEC and then Clemson. Clemson_____68%___>99% Ohio_State___47%___>99% Alabama_____27%___>99% LSU________17%____>99% Georgia______14%___>99% Penn_State___13%___>99%
Now is where it gets interesting. Oklahoma____26%____86% Oregon______44%____74% Utah________32%____70%
Oklahoma is really ahead of Oregon and Utah despite being behind both on them in the current CFP poll.
Last and least are Baylor and Minnesota. Baylor________6%____96% Minnesota_____2%____98%
Baylor's 8-0 will likely end up 8-4 or 9-3. They are about to get steamrolled. Same for Minnesota both they actually have a legit shot to finish and 11-1 or 10-2.