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Replies: 22
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Trainer [33]
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win-win realignment scenario for ACC and Big12?
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Mar 11, 2024, 5:45 PM
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The ACC's getting back control of tier 3 rights that they gave away for nothing to Raycom in 2027. I did some calculations on the ACC board that figured these rights to be worth between $7.5m-$10m (I could see higher). Not some chump change and a potential game changer for the ACC to be in a predatory position. I believe it to be in the ACC's best interest to make a western wing which will enter new markets and time slots and cut down on travel for everybody.
So here is the scenario: The ACC starts off by getting SDSU to take the SMU deal, the ACC would be smart to use this money to pacify FSU and Clemson and to buy continued loyalty from UNC and UM. Let's say $5m each does the trick and the other members get an additional $1m.
In 2027, the ACC is able to strike a deal with the CW for a conservative amount of $7.5m per year starting out. That has to be pretty tempting to the Big12 schools and I'm sure the Pac additions would rather be academically aligned with the ACC. The ACC strikes a deal with Az and ASU (politically tied) and TCU feeling the economic pressure of keeping up and wants to move up in the academic world chooses to join them. The western ACC division is: Stan, Cal, SMU, TCU, Az, ASU and SDSU. That's not bad looking and there are a lot of cultural similarities in there.
The Big12 backfills with WSU, OSU, BSU, Fresno St. and Gonzaga. Utah and BYU make a natural bridge into those territories and I think there are a lot of potentially good matchups in that grouping.
Big12 divisions look like this:
Utah, BYU, Or. St, WSU, BSU, Fres St., (Gonzaga)
Colo, TTU, Baylor, UH, Ok. St, Kansas
KSU, ISU, WVU, Cinci, UCF, USF
This just looks aesthetically pleasing to me. I could see Memphis being taken by the Big12 instead of USF and it would work out just as good if not better. Most importantly in all of this, everybody looks like they fit.
You might be wondering about how I came up with that additional money of $7.5m-$10m per member annually, even these figures might be a bit conservative on the open market. Remember: The ACC gave away tier 3 right to ESPN so that Raycom could benefit back in 2012(?), that cost each member $4.5m (or $50m total) annually in 2012 money. The ACC went first in the negotiations and likely set the bar too low for themselves to begin with. The current annual escalator on the ESPN deal is at 4.5%, but even that % does not keep up with the current cfb inflation. But wait! There's more...Since 2012, the ACC more than doubled its reach going into populous states like Pennsylvania, New York, Texas and California, ND also delivers the Chicago market (allegedly).
If this was still 2012 and the ACC got a fair market value for that tier 3 content, the ACC would be splitting $100m 18 ways or $5.55m per and I believe that would be conservative for back then because ND has such a strong national presence. 15 years later and I could easily see that number being doubled.
Whatcha think? You see any errors in my reasoning or math?
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All-TigerNet [13530]
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Re: win-win realignment scenario for ACC and Big12?
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Mar 11, 2024, 5:58 PM
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My first reaction is too many moving parts to become a reality as outlined, and not really all that appealing in terms of matchups. But, I don't discount the possibility of the Big 12 and ACC trying to do something together out of survival but I think this comes as a last resort. I don't think the B1G or SEC will just sit pat but one may be waiting for the other to make a move or, they may want to finalize new contracts before doing anything and the media partners most likely will have some say in the restructuring.
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Trainer [33]
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Re: win-win realignment scenario for ACC and Big12?
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Mar 11, 2024, 6:06 PM
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The ACC and Big12 should work together to leverage their basketball just like the SEC and B1G is working together to leverage their football. In a perfect world we would just swap certain members, but this is about the ACC raiding the Big12 and the Big12 backfilling.
Not too many moving parts, the ACC grabs SDSU first, then close to 2030 raid the Big12 for ASU, Az, TCU. The Big12 might not backfill all at once, but once their backfill is complete, what they could have looks more cohesive and culturally aligned.
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All-TigerNet [13530]
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Re: win-win realignment scenario for ACC and Big12?
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Mar 11, 2024, 6:16 PM
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I don't think anything is going to look the same by 2030. The big reorg will probably have come along before then.
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Trainer [33]
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Re: win-win realignment scenario for ACC and Big12?
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Mar 11, 2024, 6:25 PM
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Hold serve until 2027 and try to get a high bid for those tier 3 rights. The ACC could pacify FSU right now if they wanted to and it would not cost the rest of the members a thing. ESPN owes the ACC 1 more pro-rata, a G5 call up get's the top brands closer to where they need to be to compete in this brave new world.
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Head Coach [768]
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Re: win-win realignment scenario for ACC and Big12?
Mar 11, 2024, 6:52 PM
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FSU sued all the rest of us...they can stick the pacifier up their horses kazoo! Why would you want to reward thugs who can't stick to a contract? Let them go to the Missouri Valley where they can be queen!
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All-TigerNet [12547]
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That sounds like
Mar 11, 2024, 6:33 PM
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A pile of crap. Hope Clemsin is not mired in that mess.
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110%er [5383]
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Why are we seeing 2027 lately? I thought the GOR was 2036.
Mar 11, 2024, 6:38 PM
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THX!
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Trainer [33]
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Re: Why are we seeing 2027 lately? I thought the GOR was 2036.
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Mar 11, 2024, 6:49 PM
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The Raycom sweetheart deal is a totally separate thing from the ESPN option to back out. The Raycom deal was known since Swofford negotiated the original contract.
"On July 13, 2023, The CW signed a deal with Raycom lasting until 2027 to broadcast" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raycom_Sports
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110%er [5383]
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got it...thx, wasn't thinking of the separation deals***
Mar 11, 2024, 7:29 PM
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CU Guru [1045]
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Re: got it...thx, wasn't thinking of the separation deals***
Mar 12, 2024, 8:37 AM
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It's not a separate deal. It's just a syndication package.
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CU Guru [1045]
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110%er [7219]
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Re: win-win realignment scenario for ACC and Big12?
Mar 11, 2024, 6:45 PM
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First thought- the vomit emogi.
Second thought- SDSU doesn't have the money to "take the SMU deal".
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CU Guru [1045]
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Re: win-win realignment scenario for ACC and Big12?
Mar 11, 2024, 6:49 PM
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Right off the bat, you made a major error. Raycom does not have the ACC's Tier 3 rights. ESPN owns all of the ACC's media rights, including Tier 3. Right off the bat, your premise is flawed, so everything else that follows won't work.
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Orange Blooded [4851]
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Re: win-win realignment scenario for ACC and Big12?
Mar 11, 2024, 6:52 PM
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Bunch of BS turning the ACC into who knows?
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Trainer [33]
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Re: win-win realignment scenario for ACC and Big12?
Mar 11, 2024, 8:04 PM
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Just so everybody has the whole picture. There would be 7 members in the western division in football, could potentially move ND over to the west in basketball.
With 7 members, they would play 6 conference games and 2 against the other 14. Meaning, if everybody from the ACC14 played the west evenly, that would be 1 game a year and 1 trip out west every other year for football.
Basketball scheduling can be tricky, but the impact can be minimalized if the road trip played Cal on Thursday and Stan on Saturday or SMU on Thursday and TCU on Saturday or Az on Thursday and ASU on Saturday.
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CU Medallion [55430]
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Re: win-win realignment scenario for ACC and Big12?
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Mar 11, 2024, 8:05 PM
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$5 million compared to the payday that the SEC and the Big are being paid is a lot less than chump change for the ACC, it's like maybe 20 to 25% on the dollar actually.
The very best thing that could happen for Clemson or FSU would be to get an invite to the SEC or the Big with a promise from either of those two conferences to help Clemson and FSU to buy out of the ACC grant of rights contracts.
If those two conferences wanted to add FB power to the FB side of their conference, I believe that Clemson and FSU would be their best choice over any of the schools not in either of those conferences. IMO, Clemson and FSU are already better than most of the teams in either conference, plus with Clemson or FSU in either of those two conferences, it would strengthen their recruiting power even more than it is now recruiting from the ACC...
If the SEC and the Big 10 wanted to strengthen their FB power, Clemson and FSU would be great choices that would add FB power to either conference. But, if the SEC was to take both Clemson and FSU, the SEC would overwhelm the BIG as a FB conference, but if the BIG took both Clemson and FSU, I think that the Big would be pretty close to even, if not even with the SEC as a FB power conference.
Agree or Disagree?
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Trainer [33]
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Re: win-win realignment scenario for ACC and Big12?
Mar 11, 2024, 8:15 PM
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Agree, but I'm also trying to push back on a power 2 structure.
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Orange Blooded [3961]
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Re: win-win realignment scenario for ACC and Big12?
Mar 11, 2024, 8:27 PM
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I think any Scenario that still has FSU or Clemson in the ACC isn’t realistic. They will have gone by 2027. Bank on it.
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Orange Blooded [2860]
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Re: win-win realignment scenario for ACC and Big12?
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Mar 11, 2024, 8:50 PM
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The amount of make believe and fairy dust I just read in this thread is staggering. Some of you need a big wake up call about the money, power, and control in the hands of the two networks and their favored conferences. All these alternate conference ideas are equivalent to Clemson proposing an unequal revenue distribution within the ACC. It’s a 2% solution for a much bigger revenue problem.
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Legend [17615]
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With all due respect, who is the patron saint of lost causes?
Mar 11, 2024, 10:40 PM
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When you can answer that, start praying to him. College basketball in the "one & done and NL/portal era" is dead beyond one month of March Madness. Football brings in approx. 93% of revenue. As for the ACC and BIG 12, even together, their schools will bring in 1/2 of what Vandy, SCU and Rutgers will earn from their conference network deals.
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Orange Blooded [2860]
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Re: With all due respect, who is the patron saint of lost causes?
Mar 12, 2024, 7:52 AM
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The Apostle St. Jude (Thaddeus).
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110%er [5101]
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Re: win-win realignment scenario for ACC and Big12?
Mar 12, 2024, 9:07 AM
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I like your creative thinking. Here's what I think is factual. The ACC and the Big 12 will not survive or be relevant if they don't have some kind of merger. If they do this they will be the third best conference behind the SEC and Big 10. The question is how far away would they be financially.
Maybe they get a TV deal that is doable.
If Clemson and FSU leaves then there's no way they can get a decent TV deal.
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Replies: 22
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