in this thing? From what I'm seeing and reading, Putin is in it to win, and no longer just get the disputed territories, but ALL of Ukraine. I do not see him settling in any way for any reason.
I only see two possible outcomes: * He takes Ukraine (in terms of cities and the capital) but the Ukrainians continue to fight guerilla warfare for years and years * He is deposed by a coup or assassination or something. Clearly the Russian people, and many in government and positions of influence, are unhappy with the operation in general, and the number of Russian military casualties and Ukrainian civilian casualties. Seeing this happen wouldn't surprise me at all. This would be the best possible outcome for Russia and Ukraine (and the world, for that matter), but it's also the unlikeliest, next to Putin settling for land and then leaving.
insurgency will grow. Russians will suffer huge casualties. The Russian military will lose its will to fight. The Russian people(including the old ones who are morel likely to admire Putin as their savings are savaged) will rise up as their economy flounders and popular opinion turns against Putin. Putin will go into exile.