Advanced outlook: Clemson-Texas A&M projections

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Thu Sep 06 13:39:21 GMT-04:00 2018

One week of game data for most teams nationally wouldn’t seem to sway preseason projections much, but the ESPN Football Power Index projection for Clemson-Texas A&M did noticeably move down.

Clemson is still favored by any metric, but the FPI projection went from a more confident 75.7 chance for Clemson to 68.5 after last weekend’s action. The Aggies jumped four spots to No. 15 in the FPI rankings after its 59-7 home win over Northwestern State, while Clemson fell a spot to No. 2 behind Alabama after a vanilla-but-easy 48-7 win over Furman.

Through the ultra-small sample size, Clemson’s offense ranked 71st and the defense was 25-best in ESPN’s efficiency rankings - up to 7th overall in special teams. A&M racked up over 700 yards of offense last week but rank 31st there - 44th on defense and 79th on special teams.

SB Nation’s efficiency-based metric projects a game close to the current spread, taking the Tigers 32-20. Returning nine of 10 O-line contributors, Texas A&M hopes it has taken steps forward with its nation-leading 503-yard rushing effort last week - after ranking 108th nationally in rushing efficiency last season (per SBN). They were 38th in adjusted sack rate in 2017.

TeamRankings also picks a slightly tighter projection than some preseason, giving Clemson 64.9 win odds. The game is regarded as the second-toughest game on the schedule left, behind the trip to Boston College (63.7).

Clemson is currently fourth in TeamRanking’s power ratings - behind Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State - and Texas A&M checks in at No. 24.

Circling back to FPI, Clemson went 4-1 versus FPI top-20 teams last year and posted a double-digit scoring margin average (11.2). In true road games, the Tigers went 4-0 with its starting QB Kelly Bryant healthy start-to-finish with a 17.8-point victory margin.

Texas A&M lost by an average of 15.7 points versus FPI top-15 teams last season (3 games) and 11.5 points in two home matchups with top-10 FPI programs (Alabama and Auburn).

Taking a glance at Jimbo Fisher’s track record with FSU, the Seminoles didn’t top a team ranked in the top-30 of FPI in its 6-7 campaign last season and went 5-9 in such games over the previous three seasons (Clemson went 16-3 in the same span).

Advanced outlook: Clemson-Texas A&M

SB Nation: 32-20 Clemson

ESPN FPI: 68.5 win chance

TeamRankings: 64.9 win chance