LSU scored 85.2% over their opponents' defensive scoring averages (47.6 to 25.7) through the season. Clemson scored 59.2% (44.2 to 27.8) over their opponents’ averages. Edge LSU. [13 games – no FCS games included]
Clemson's defense allowed only 38.4% of points per game over the season than its opponents averaged (11.3 to 29.4). LSU’s defense held teams at an impressive 71.6% rate (22.2 to 31.1). Bigger edge Clemson.
When you run LSU's offensive scoring % over defenses vs Clemson's defensive points average, it comes to roughly 21 points for LSU. When you flip that equation for Clemson against LSU’s numbers, our offensive overage vs their average allowed it's just over 35.
Running these comparisons from the defensive side – our 38.4% number to LSU’s scoring average puts them at just over 18 points. Clemson comes in at 31.5 versus their 71.6% allowance.
So, having adjusted for the level of competition that each team has faced by looking at it from a relative standpoint, each team’s performance versus the norm that they played, Clemson has a 13 point edge in this one, roughly 33-20. Factor in the 3-point home crowd number and it’s a 33-23 ball game to Clemson, according to maffs.