All-In [49613]
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Friday's Game: Clemson vs. Mizzou (bump)
Mar 16, 2010, 10:29 AM
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Who: Clemson (21-10, No. 7 Seed) vs. Missouri (22-10, No. 10 seed)
When: Friday, 2:45 p.m. NCAA East Region in Buffalo, NY
The Line: Tigers by 1 (I know, I know ... it was too easy!) Let's make it Clemson by 1.5 as of Thursday
Is it on TV? CBS
Who's that in the mirror?
So, who are these guys? It's confusing enough whenever Clemson plays an opponent called the Tigers. How about a Tiger team that thrives on pressure defense, lost a handful of leadership from the previous year's team and now is trying to erase an ugly loss in the first round of its conference tourney?
Mirror, mirror on the wall....
We actually played Missouri in basketball before. This is just the first time we've met in the Continuental United States. In 1985, Mizzou beat Clemson, 69-64, in the Rainbow Classic. We returned the favor, 47-45, in the 1996 San Juan Shootout.
I don't think anyone is expecting that low a score on Friday.
Why not? Don't both teams play tough defense? Yep, and both teams love to run as well. Both prefer points in transition, and they should be plentiful as we press each other into a woodchipper sort of game.
Missouri's starting lineup remains a mystery
The challenge for Clemson: no one is sure just what Missouri's starting lineup will be. Heck, even Mizzou isn't certain. Injuries have taken a toll on their interior game, and facing a date with Trevor Booker and Jerai Grant, the other Tigers are scrambling to come up with an alternative lineup. Mizzou also has an annoying habit of having a different player step up from game to game. There are a lot of good athletes on this team, buit few stars.
Kim English and friends
Sophomore Kim (don't call me Alex) English (14 ppg, 4 reb, 2 st) is a long, rangy guard with a decent outside shot. He's not afraid to go inside either. He's been a matchup problem all season, and he leads the Tigers in double figure games this year. Mainly his game benefitted when team had to double Justin Safford (now out with a knee injury), leaving interior space to drive. With Safford out, defenders have been less generous inside. Think of him as a GTech guard, maybe a scrawny Shumpert...hot one night, cold the next. About a third of the Missouri offense goes through English, so if defenders can get in his head, the Tigers suffer.
One likely starting guard is senior J.T. Tiller (8 ppg, 4 ast, 2 st). Tiller isn't a big threat from long range, and his minutes only increased after Safford's injury as the Tigers began tinkering with the lineup. He reminds me a little of Cliff Hammonds: tough defense, streaky shooter, but a team leader. And if he's hot, the Tigers are in good shape. If not, it's trouble for Mizzou.
And he can dance, too!
After these two, things get a little muddy. Since the Tigers generally start 3 guards to counter Clemson's press, look for senior Zaire Taylor (8 ppg, 2 ast, 85 percent from the line). He sees a lot of minutes. He's got decent range (35 pecent from the arc) and can pick up steals against unwary opponents. If Missouri watched the NC State game, this is the guy they may use to double Booker. He does have a tendency to foul, so he may spend some time on the bench.
We'll also see plenty of guard Marcus Denmon (10 ppg, 3 reb) who is Mizzou's biggest 3-point threat....if he's left uncovered. Like NC State's Scott Wood, he torches people who don't get a hand in his face. Against better guard teams (Kansas and Kansas St.) his numbers fall off considerably.
Inside, Keith Ramsey (8 ppg the last month, 6 reb) has filled the space, if not the shoes, of Safford. He's getting a lot of minutes, runs the floor well and stays out of foul trouble. He'd be one of those traditional interior guys at NC State ... big with a surprising range.
Laurence Bowers (10 ppg, 6 reb, 40 pct from the arc) is a big question mark. The Tigers swear he's going to start, but after injuring ligaments in his non-shooting hand, just how much can he offer? If the Tigers decide to trade offense for a solid defender on Booker, this would be the guy. Mizzou fans believe he'll start, given his steady play ... even with the injury.
Missouri's offense needs Bowers' consistency. They'll score 90 one day against a weak Colorado team, then only 59 the next game against an equally woeful Nebraska. Away from home, it's even worse: the Tigers have beaten only one Top 100 team on the road this year (but they did come very close to beating Baylor last month).
The bread and butter of Mizzou is defense (or as their in-house media calls it "The most exciting 40 minutes of college basketball" ... seems they stole more than a mascot from Clemson?) Missouri lead the NCAA tournament field in steals per game (with Clemson No. 3 in the group), and they average 30 points per game off turnovers. This, of course, means that their half-court game is at least as iffy as ours.
Overall, I'd equate Missouri's defense to Clemson's two years ago: intense, frenetic and sublject to getting shredded by teams that knew how to handle it. You'll see what I mean when we play. It's easy to see a James Mays, Sam Perry and Cliff Hammonds out there. A few days ago, we had a discussion which Clemson team was better....I think we'll have our answer on Friday.
I think we see a lot of this on Friday
How will Clemson respond? The press is nothing new to Clemson. Our guys understand how it works, and we've seen good teams pick it apart.
Now it's our turn to show what we've learned. We may see the ball in the hands of Andre Young (9 ppg, 3 ast) coming upcourt since he's shown a neat knack for splitting opposing presses. Demontez Stitt (11 ppg, 3 ast) may be better served as a scorer as Mizou's interior is hampered by injury. Stitt's slashing style inside will create problems if Mizzou decides to double on Booker (15 ppg, 9 reb, 2 ast).
But Trevor may well have his first game in a while without the claustrophobic defenses ACC opponents have thrown at him. And if Mizzou does commit to stopping Booker while their guards press, Clemson needs to be patient and wait for the inevitable mid-range jumper that's going to appear.
Count on seeing a lot of Tanner Smith (8 ppg, 3 reb) as the Tigers will need a rangy guard to compensate for Mizzou's press. He also has the size to defend English, or force him to turn away from the basket rather than drive.
David Potter (7 ppg, 2 steals avg. in his last 6 games) will be a wild card. If we can shred Mizzou's press, he'll be more valuable as a defender. If we have to work more for shots, his range from the arc (40 percent in the last six games) will be crucial.
The biggest wild card is out of both team's hands...how tight will the refs call the game? Both teams like to use an in-you-face defense, and a Hessian sort of ref is going to mess up what would otherwise be a great game to watch.
One more time for OP and the Tigers
So, what's going to happen? Everyone from Joe Lunardi to the usual collection of smart alecks online say "Put your money on the Tigers!" without mentioning which Tigers to bankroll. Vegas calls it a one-point win for Clemson, which essentially is a tossup. But there are a few things Clemson can do to help its chances.
1. Stay focused: The team that lost to Mizzou allowed the Tigers' press to fluster them. Teams with good guard play who looked for opportunities to use Mizzou's aggressiveness against them (including some not-so-good Big 12 teams) have triumphed. With our guard play, we should be able to exploit the Tigers' defense.
2. Look inside: Whether or not Bowers plays, Clemson has the talent edge inside. There are no Aminu-Alabi-Mongo guys guarding the middle for Missouri. Heck there's not even a Jeff Allen under there. Booker will have an opportunity he hasn't had in a long time to go wild. Clemson needs to make it happen.
3. Switch up the press: Mizzou is used to playing against full-court pressure. Switch things up. Keep their guards off-guard. Above all, get in English's head, much like we did Vasquez at home. If he's second-guessing, the Tigers offense is sputtering.
4. Finally, hit the free throws: It really doesn't need to be said, but we're in the win and advance stage now. There's no sense saving them for later. Every point is gold, and every missed FT is a nail for the coffin.
I'm still here, Tigers! Try and get rid of me!
Clemson can win this game, should win this game. We have equal talent at guard and better skill down low. This would be a huge monkey off the back of Op as well as the team.
Make it so, Tigers.
Message was edited by: RevDodd®
Message was edited by: RevDodd®
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