Herbstreit, Pollack discuss "Doomsday Scenarios" that could affect Playoff

Herbstreit says Dabo Swinney and the Tigers are in with a win over Notre Dame. (USA TODAY-Kelley Cox)

by David Hood - Senior Writer - Tue Dec 08 13:01:03 GMT-04:00 2020

Editor's note: Story was published before Ohio State had its game with Michigan canceled Saturday.

Who would be left out of the College Football Playoff under certain Doomsday Scenarios? ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit and David Pollack discussed that this week, including scenarios for Clemson making a sixth consecutive appearance.

As it stands now, Alabama is in with two more wins, and Ohio State is probably in if it wins out. If Clemson defeats Notre Dame in the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte, both of those teams are probably in, and that is the most likely scenario seen by many at this point.

However, Herbstreit and Pollack discussed the potential for a doomsday scenario on Monday's episode of the CFB Podcast with Herbie, Pollack & Kevin Neghandi.

"(If) Florida wins, I think Florida has to be in," Pollack said, pointing to a scenario where Florida beats Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. "You're telling me your only loss is to Texas A&M on the road by a field goal, great football game (41-38, Oct. 10)? Florida's 1,000% in.

"If Clemson beats Notre Dame (Dec. 19 in the ACC Championship Game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina), Clemson's in. There's no doubt about it. I haven't a doubt about that at all. To me, if Ohio State wins this week, (then) wins the Big Ten Championship Game (Dec. 19 against Northwestern at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis), I think they're in. Then you've got Notre Dame and Alabama fighting for one spot."

Herbstreit took it a step further and said that if Florida beats Alabama, then the matchup between Clemson and Notre Dame holds the key to who gets in between Alabama and Ohio State.

"Everyone wants doomsday or armageddon — that's it," Herbstreit said. "Under that scenario, if Clemson beat Notre Dame and avenged that loss and Florida with Kyle Trask ended up out-dueling Mac Jones and beat Alabama, you'd essentially have five teams for four spots if Ohio State keeps winning. What people would knock Ohio State is the amount of games they played. But if they end up going to Indianapolis and they are Big Ten champions, it'll be very, very challenging to the committee.

"So David said if Florida beats Alabama, Florida's a lock to go. That's done. If Clemson wins, they're a lock. And then you have Alabama, Ohio State and Notre Dame. And the only thing I'll say about Notre Dame is this — if you look at their resume, they beat the No. 1-ranked team in Clemson. That would be very, very hard (to leave the Irish out). Now, if they get blown out against Clemson under this scenario, it's a different thing. I think Notre Dame would be in, because of the win against Clemson as a No. 1-ranked team. When you get down to it, what they call a 'cluster' — they're trying to separate — head to head would be one thing, conference champion would be another, then they'd look at strength of schedule, they look at common opponent.

"I think it would be a debate between Alabama and Ohio State, personally, and I think you would have one as a Big Ten champion — under this scenario we're talking about — and then you'd have Alabama who we all agree is the best team in the country, lost in their SEC Championship Game. And then it would be, 'Has Ohio State played enough games, as a Big Ten champion, versus Alabama (who) the committee feels is the best team in the country, even though they lost their last game?' I think Ohio State gets the nod under the rules of what they've set. They would get the nod over Alabama."

Pollack then worked out the differences he sees between Alabama and Ohio State -- should the Playoff Committee have to make a choice between those two schools.

"We don't know the scores of games (yet). We don't know how anything was played out. So I think it's a tough scenario, but I could tell you this beyond a shadow of a doubt — Alabama, to me, is a much better football team than Ohio State," Pollack said. "I don't have to bat an eye, I don't have to point to resumes — which clearly points to Alabama anyways — I'm talking about tape-wise, talent-wise and completeness-of-team-wise. Alabama is much better, from what I've seen so far. So if that's the debate, again, for me, I'm putting in the better team. To me, I would put in Alabama, in that scenario. ... By the way, (Texas A&M is) the better win. They would have two better wins (including Georgia, 41-24, Oct. 17). It's clearly better. By the way, Alabama, if you want to look at Alabama's resume, I think they would have the best resume, period, from what they've accomplished.

"Like, Kirk, I want to talk about Notre Dame and I want to give them props because they deserve props from the Clemson win. I can't act like Trevor Lawrence played that football game. I can't. Like, I have to take that into account and I think it will be taken into account. Now, we see it, Round 2. We see (linebacker James) Skalski back. We see Mike Jones Jr. We see all these guys back now for Clemson and it makes it a totally different game. I don't know that the Irish will get the mulligan that I think people are going to automatically get because they perceive that as the best win in the country over Clemson."