Replies: 21
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Hall of Famer [20542]
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Simple election math
Nov 2, 2020, 12:49 PM
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Biden is probably at 252 electoral votes from a standing start, unless weirder-than-normal stuff happens in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Minnesota, where he's up well above the margin of error in all those states.
That means he needs just 18 more electoral votes from anywhere to win. How does that break down? Pretty not good. It basically breaks down thusly: there are 7 main battleground states and Biden really only needs one of them. Trump has to sweep.
"SUDDEN DEATH" STATES If Biden wins ANY of Texas (Trump +1.2 per Realclearpolitics), Florida (Biden +1), Pennsylvania (Biden +4.0), or Ohio (Trump +0.2) that's it, that's ball game right there. Texas has 38 electoral votes and Florida 29, well above the 18 Biden still needs. Pennsylvania has 20...and Ohio also has exactly the 18 Biden needs.
Then there's the three that won't quite put Biden over the line...but put him right on the very brink.
BRINK OF DEATH STATES If Biden wins Georgia (Biden +0.4) and its 16 electoral votes, at that point Biden needs just two more electoral votes from anywhere. He could cross the finish line just by picking off those two 1-point independent districts, Nebraska's 2nd District (Biden +4.0) and Maine's Second District (Biden +2.0). Nevada (Biden +4) and its 6 electoral votes or Iowa and its six (Trump +1.4) would do equally well.
If Biden wins North Carolina (Biden +1.9) and its 15 electoral votes all he needs is three from anywhere - any of Nevada, Iowa, or Arizona would do.
If Biden wins Arizona (Biden +2.8) and its 11 electoral votes, all he needs is one of Nevada/Iowa and one of those 1-vote districts in Nebraska or Maine.
Anybody see anything different?
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All-In [47750]
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The only thing clear is you can't trust polls.
Nov 2, 2020, 12:51 PM
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I got no eye deer what happens tomorrow but you can cherry pick polls for any argument.
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All-In [46825]
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It's definitely a steeper climb for Trump than Biden
Nov 2, 2020, 12:53 PM
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but don't put it past the DNC not to #### it up.
Good analysis.
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: Simple election math
Nov 2, 2020, 12:57 PM
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: Simple election math
Nov 2, 2020, 1:00 PM
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Which groups aren't turning out for dems?
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: Simple election math
Nov 2, 2020, 1:03 PM
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Hall of Famer [20542]
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Re: Simple election math
Nov 2, 2020, 1:11 PM
[ in reply to Re: Simple election math ] |
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We completely disagree on the maffs. I would give Trump less than a 5 per cent chance based on what we're seeing. There are 7, not 6, swing states, and even if you accept that they're all essentially coin flips (I don't, I think it's overall worse than that for Trump), the odds of winning seven coin flips in a row are two to the seventh power...or 1 in 128.
The only reason I give Trump even a 5% chance is because polls can be wrong and Trump's always been lucky...but luck always runs out in the end, too.
Turnout looks to be insanely heavy, which does not favor the GOP because there are vastly more registered Democrats than Republicans...and I still say if there's a polling error it's going the other way this time around.
We will see. Most sites have the odds as low as 4% (the Economist) to as high as 10% per Fivethirtyeight.com...and I suspect the only reason those odds are that high is because Trump pulled a rabbit out of his hat in 2016.
The Economist: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
Fivethirtyeight.com: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: Simple election math
Nov 2, 2020, 1:19 PM
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: Simple election math
Nov 2, 2020, 1:26 PM
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I do agree that is alot tighter than it was a few days ago.
I think anyone thinking this will be a Biden blowout is wishful thinking.
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Hall of Famer [20542]
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Re: Simple election math
Nov 2, 2020, 1:29 PM
[ in reply to Re: Simple election math ] |
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Uh...I'm allowed to challenge responses I completely disagree with. Somehow getting 55-50% out of the numbers we're looking at strikes me as incredibly wishful thinking, IMHO.
I am willing to stipulate there may well be more Trump support out there than the pollsters are finding...but if they've missed to that extent we should probably just throw the polls out altogether because they aren't worth the electrons their websites take to generate.
That is always the concern, and you can see Nate Silver and the other pollsters starting to stress out on their podcasts, because the real question is: what don't they know here?
Again, we will definitely see. But it's hard to see Trump closing a 7.5+ point gap in less than 24 hours. Where are those votes going to come from? (Not rhetorical, I genuinely can't come up with an answer, myself.)
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All-In [46825]
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But correct me if I'm wrong here,
Nov 2, 2020, 1:34 PM
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these polls show how many people plan on voting for Biden vs. Trump (popular vote)
That doesn't translate to if Biden or Trump wins based on EC votes.
So the polls could be absolutely right on who people vote for and completely wrong on who wins.
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Rock Defender [54]
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CU Guru [1797]
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If you want some easy money.....
Nov 2, 2020, 5:27 PM
[ in reply to Re: Simple election math ] |
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Predictit still has Trump at 42 cents, so you can buy Trump no shares for around 58 cents. Biden wins you make a 72% profit, minus the fees. Maximum "bet" is $850, but I still can't believe he is still trading that high with all the liquidity (116 million shares traded).
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: Simple election math
Nov 2, 2020, 1:17 PM
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Q,
I think you are arguing logic on the emotional board. The Trumpers aren't interested in the lying numbers of some daggum scientific polls - they were wrong in 2016 and they are wrong now !!
They only thing that will convince them that they are in the minority will be the actual results - and even then, there will be a substantial number that will refuse that reality (along with all of the others that they deny)
Here's hoping for a landslide so that the transition to a Democratic administration may be as quick and as painless as possible.
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Oculus Spirit [97738]
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I see polls, so I see nothing.
Nov 2, 2020, 1:19 PM
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If they've never contacted me for my opinion, then I put little faith in their opinion.
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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"well above the margin of error".... haha
Nov 2, 2020, 1:54 PM
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this is like your football breakdowns... zero substance
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Hall of Famer [20542]
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Re: "well above the margin of error".... haha
Nov 2, 2020, 3:25 PM
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I would pick at some of your posts, but I literally cannot remember a thing you ever said.
You're a pure troll. It somehow does not shock me you're also a big Trump guy.
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Starter [368]
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Re: "well above the margin of error".... haha
Nov 2, 2020, 6:21 PM
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please note, Snowtown has no clue, absolutely no clue.
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CU Guru [1405]
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Re: Simple election math
Nov 2, 2020, 2:01 PM
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I think you're right that Biden is starting at 252. The race has definitely tightened and it's entirely possible, even plausible, that Trump sweeps the rest.
The key is going to be if there just aren't enough outstanding votes to affect the outcome. It's possible that as we stand today, the vote counts in the swing states is simply too much for Trump to overcome.
There are swing states that matter more than others early on. If Biden were to take NC or GA early, it's over. There's no scenario for Trump where he loses one of those and comes back. It'll be an interesting evening tomorrow.
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Hall of Famer [24110]
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Re: Simple election math
Nov 2, 2020, 2:21 PM
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Full Disclosure: I am hoping you’re wrong as I am voting for Trump.
With that being said, your initial premise “Biden is (‘starting’) at 252 . . . “ is based upon polling data. The same data that was wrong in ‘16.
That is my hope and I’m sticking to it until the actual ‘ball is spotted and the game is played’.
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CU Guru [1405]
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Re: Simple election math
Nov 2, 2020, 2:44 PM
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The polls that were conducted the week before the election were dead on in 16.
What was wrong was modeling. The pollsters didn't conduct last minute polls in the Midwest. The models used outdated polling data in that area, do they underestimated Trump's odds of winning PA, MI, and WI. That's all that happened.
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Team Captain [499]
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RCP Posted Betting Odds
Nov 2, 2020, 5:12 PM
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Give Trump a 35% chance to win. The number has not changed much at all over the last several days. This number seems about right to me.
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Replies: 21
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