Replies: 14
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Legend [15248]
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VT game will determine our postseason possibilty.
Feb 6, 2019, 10:17 PM
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I think it's a must win if we are gonna sneak in the NCAAT.
That NCST loss looms large. I just can't see a path if we lose at home to VT.
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All-In [44225]
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I don't see it as that cut-and-dried.
Feb 6, 2019, 10:52 PM
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We are currently 14-8 (4-5). We have 9 regular season games left, and I believe we need to get to at least 19 wins for strong NCAA Tournament consideration. That means we need to go 5-4 from here on out.
We have these games left:
Virginia Tech @ Miami @ Louisville Florida State Boston College @ Pittsburgh North Carolina @ Notre Dame Syracuse
I agree with you that beating Virginia Tech this weekend will give us a great win over a top 15 team. We badly need a big win. But there are certainly opportunities for more high quality wins, even if we lose to VT.
I don't see any of these 9 games as guaranteed losses. It is certainly not an easy schedule, but not insurmountable either. I hate that we let that NC State game slip away though.
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All-In [38455]
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Re: I don't see it as that cut-and-dried.
Feb 7, 2019, 12:35 AM
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We'll lose to Louisville and UNC , which means that we finish 7-2 rest of the way . 21-10 headed into the ACCT . A first round win is probably enough to get that bid .
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Orange Blooded [2925]
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I really think we need to get to 10-8 in conference...
Feb 7, 2019, 12:50 AM
[ in reply to I don't see it as that cut-and-dried. ] |
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To get a bid. If we get wins over the bottom dwellers (Pitt, BC, ND, Miami)...that gets us to 8 wins. Then we have 5 other games against tourney teams...but going 1-4 against them won’t be enough. We need at least 2 more really good wins. Our resume is simply not going to be that good if we are 9-9 with wins over bottom feeders. One doesn’t necessarily have to be VT...but considering their PG injury and how we are playing, and it being at home...we might as well go ahead and do it.
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All-In [44225]
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I agree, at least 10-8 in ACC play would be best.
Feb 7, 2019, 3:36 PM
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I would be sweating Selection Sunday with a 9-9 conference record and no quality wins. I am hoping for 10-8, if not 11-7 again, either of which should be enough.
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Rock Defender [56]
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Re: VT game will determine our postseason possibilty.
Feb 6, 2019, 11:06 PM
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My guess is we go 5-4 or 6-3 in those games. Where does that put us as far as making the tourney?
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Commissioner [970]
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Re: VT game will determine our postseason possibilty.
Feb 6, 2019, 11:34 PM
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It is difficult to say without knowing which of those games in particular are the five or six wins you're predicting...a win number is no longer the benchmark, and it hasn't been for a long time, for determining an NCAA Tournament team. However, generally speaking, if this team finishes in the sort of fashion you're describing, it will be in the Dance.
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Orange Blooded [2925]
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6-3 likely means in, but...
Feb 7, 2019, 12:53 AM
[ in reply to Re: VT game will determine our postseason possibilty. ] |
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5-4 does not...just gets us to 9-9...we could get there with 4 wins over bottom feeders and winning just one of the games against good teams (VT, Lou, FSU, UNC, Cuse)....with our resume, we need 10 conference wins.
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Team Captain [453]
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You all have to quit focusing on quantity of wins
Feb 7, 2019, 7:28 AM
[ in reply to Re: VT game will determine our postseason possibilty. ] |
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Thanks to Lipscomb we have 1 win over a top 50 NET (NET is the new RPI basically) rated opponent. All these wins against the ACC mid-level and bottom feeders are necessary but aren't getting us a tourney bid.
We have 5 games remaining against the NET top 50. Cuse (H), UNC (H), Louisville (A), Va Tech(H), and FSU(H). We have to have at least two of those. Three of those and I think we are in no problem.
Currently our record vs NET top-50 is 1-7 with losses to Nebraska, MS State, Duke, UVA, FSU, Cuse, and NCSU. That's not a tourney resume. All we've done to date is prove we can beat teams that won't make the tournament. If we win 3 of the 5 above it puts us at 4-9 vs NET top 50, that's probably good enough to get in. 3-10 vs NET top-50 may or may not be.
It's not about 21 wins or 9 or 10 ACC wins. It's about finding resume building wins at this point.
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110%er [6281]
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Re: You all have to quit focusing on quantity of wins
Feb 7, 2019, 8:05 AM
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We need to beat the teams we are suppose to beat, go 2-2 against Cuse, FSU, VT, and UNC, and stealing the UL game on the road would be nice. We have to get some quality Ws tho for sure.
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Legend [17027]
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Re: You all have to quit focusing on quantity of wins
Feb 7, 2019, 9:11 AM
[ in reply to You all have to quit focusing on quantity of wins ] |
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It's not about 21 wins or 9 or 10 ACC wins. It's about finding resume building wins at this point.
You can’t get to one without the other. We need at least 20 wins to stand a chance. 21 becomes a virtual lock. Doable but not likely.
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Orange Blooded [2925]
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I think you are right....
Feb 7, 2019, 9:12 AM
[ in reply to You all have to quit focusing on quantity of wins ] |
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If we win out against the bottom feeders, the good news is we really don’t have any truly ‘awful’ losses (they won’t kill us for 1 loss to Creighton in November). But we do need some significant wins. The other thing is that the GT game was the beginning of the ‘last 10 games’. If we go 8-2 down the stretch, with 3 big wins, we’ll be lock territory. I think at 7-3 with 2 big wins, we are on the bubble but on the right side of it. Anything less than that and it’s NIT time.
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Letterman [260]
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Re: VT game will determine our postseason possibilty.
Feb 6, 2019, 11:25 PM
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The NC State loss offers no margin for error. Hit a free throw or two and we're 5-4 , not 4-5 after running the gamut. Lot's of pressure to keep winning, but I like what the team is doing now.
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CU Guru [1589]
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Re: VT game will determine our postseason possibilty.
Feb 7, 2019, 7:59 AM
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I think the next 4 games are the key. VT, Miami, Louisville, FSU. I think we can go 3-1 in those games. Do that and things are looking good.
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Recruit [90]
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Re: VT game will determine our postseason possibilty.
Feb 7, 2019, 8:53 AM
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As mentioned above, we have nine games left. Four of which are against bad teams. Those are must wins, even with three games on the road.
I think @ Louisville is a lose.
So that gives us four home games against top teams. If we win one and win one ACC tournament game, we will have 20 wins and will probably be in. If we lose all four (or do not win any ACC games), we will be on the bubble with 19 wins. 18 wins and we probably do not make the NCAAs.
So the VT game is not a must win by itself, but it would certainly help.
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